snow_wizard

That's warm compared to what you will get next week.

Much like the 18z GFS. Looks like a good chance the low center ends up either straight south of Seattle or SE of it. Good news for this area.

Looks like 1954, 1957, 1980 are coming up a lot. All had a lot of cold weather and snow. This is old school stuff.

Are you sure? 2013-14 had two big cold waves.

We might. We haven't had a January record low in ages so it would be cool.

It's interesting how much the 18z GFS increased precip amounts for the Central Puget Sound this weekend since it switched to showing the low center ending up over south central / SE WA instead of SW WA like previous runs had shown. Seattle seems to do better in backwash situations. The 12z ECMWF also favored a more inland track for the low center. Out smarting the Olympics and down sloping easterly winds is the key for us.

Indeed. It actually appears the most dramatic cold may be during week 2.

No doubt.

We're finally going to score in January. Just that is very newsworthy after the past 35 years or so. We used to get an incredible January once or twice a decade. So much more potential than any other month especially in duration of cold.

I'm astonished the record for the 1st is from this year. Really quite unbelievable in fact.

We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland.

I totally understand. It's much easier to throw a more aggressive forecast out there on a forum like this. My experience though is the ones that actually work out usually deliver the cold faster than just about anyone expects. The probability of this working out is way above average IMO.

Incredible model runs today! The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS both have around 3 inches of snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. The stuff as we get toward the 8 to 12 day period looks potentially historic. I have to say the block being depicted is unlike anything I've seen since I've been looking at models. It eventually gets to where there is a literal river of cold air pouring off the top of the globe right into the NW. Very exciting. I have to say the NWS forecast is a bit timid looking for this weekend. Almost certainly keeps the mention of rain in the forecast too long and is almost certainly too warm for Sunday. Plenty of time to sort that out though. I'm betting anything by very early Sunday morning will be snow in the Seattle area and it might even be sooner than that.

Truly incredible stat. Assuming this pans out one is left to wonder what changed. This January curse has been incredibly long. You could even call 1972 and 1980 kind of a last gasp of the great Januaries since they didn't quite measure up to the ones before it.

I almost need a cigarette after looking at the Euro ensemble. Strong hinting of major snowfall in the mean with cold right through day 15. The control shows a massive snow event followed by a blast of Jan 1950 type cold with a SE ridge developing. Both strongly suggest the cold is nowhere near done at the end.

The Euro ensemble and control model look like something epic is setting up after day 10. The cold regroups in SW Canada, and the northern half of the NW quarter of the country with low pressure beginning to inject moisture into the picture. The control model shows wickedly cold air over southern BC.

Perhaps...but then again January is the month we can have epic / long cold waves. Obviously the January bar for this century is really low.

The Euro ensemble is insane. The mean now shows 850s dropping to around -13 for Seattle and by day 9 there is a massive nation wide cold spell with the block still going strong. Truly extraordinary setup.

I'm trying to decide if you're serious or not.

Pretty amazing alright. This could be...just could be like one of the great cold Januaries of the old days. Still a lot to be sorted out before we can look that far ahead though.

Pretty crazy to see how extensive the cold is going to be. With such a low PNA the East would normally torch. I have no problem with sharing as long as we get ours. We are seeing a massive displacement of cold air from the high latitudes this winter.

3 would be nice. That gives a good solid cover. Snow cover would make the cold even more impressive.

6...yes 6 inches. Can you tell I'm snow starved?

I love blocking!

Like Jan 1963 only shifted a tad west.