snow_wizard

You were on board with early January. I clearly remember it.

We shall see, but a good outcome is still very possible for us.

We will be fine. Look at the index forecasts. Any ridge over the NW would be unable to last for more than a day or two with that. The models show a quick hitting cold wave in the east and then above normal heights again. The models are struggling right now. Ensembles are the way to go.

That with dps in the 20s should preserve the snow pretty well I would think. I think Tim takes a perverse pleasure in knowing he will have good snow cover no matter what and then making the case nobody else will.

Absolutely. The EPO and PNA both being tanked is a great recipe for us. As strong an anti ridge signature as you could ever want for the NW. In fact the index forecasts are as good as they were when the models were orgasmic. The analog compotes also are. Maybe something to that?

I am beyond puzzled why anyone thinks it will be warm tomorrow. Fraser outflow behind an Arctic front with 25mph north winds in Seattle. It might be a bit above freezing, but the air will be dry. FWIW the WRF insists on low to mid 30s for highs.

Oh brother.

I just can't believe the gnashing of teeth going on about progs a week out in such a complex pattern. The chances for a good outcome are still high IMO. The models have consistently put too much emphasis on offshore cutoff lows this season. We saw that a while back with the event that is about to unfold. As long as the blocking structure is there we're in business.

A radar malfunction over the next 24 hours would really drive some people over the edge I bet.

Nah...it must be somebody dropping cotton balls out of a plane.

Yup. I just hate it when people are like this. Totally ridiculous.

1916 also. Warm interlude followed by more greatness.

Well...I'm done on here today. I'm going to enjoy my snow tonight and will be back tomorrow. Just not worth putting up with all the negativity.

The GFS ensemble is clearly showing another cold shot around the 11th now. A mean of -8. Pretty similar to the ECMWF ensemble on the 0z. I bet the 12z ECMWF ensemble shows the same. Not that anyone will pay attention to this anyway, because I know the sky is falling.

The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us. Oh yes...the ECMWF drop 850s to -13 at hour 48. I have no idea how people can ruin the fun when we are going to have snow within 24 hours followed by an Arctic outbreak. I was hoping to come on here and have fun today.

The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us.

It's going to snow at your house.

Still looks pretty good overall.

I still think there is underestimation of the coming cold going on.

They actually did ok with the snow you had a couple of weeks ago. There was doubt then also.

People should take notice I'm not melting down over this. If all was lost you all know what I would be like. Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble last night showed the brief mild period, but it snapped right back to a very nice pattern again afterward.

I trust everyone has calmed down since last night. Snowfall maps still show a big snow event for Seattle in the 8 to 10 period and tonight looks very interesting. The trend has been to actually strengthen the low a little bit since yesterday's runs. Pretty nice to go into this knowing the Seattle area will have snow. The question is how much. Still potential for unexpected convergence zones and we've already seen a trend toward keeping moisture around longer than originally shown. 1972 has been added to the analog list which is quite interesting because that January featured a bunch of minor cold snaps with bits of snow alternating with brief mild periods and then ultimately a big dump. To this day the January 1972 snowstorm was probably my favorite of all time that I can remember. As long as the Aleutian / GOA block is in play we are in business...there might just be periods where the downstream pattern kicks out over the ocean a bit too much.

I'm done on here tonight. Have fun whining.

People are WAY over-reacting.

And for most of the time before it too. This is so ridiculous. There are like 3 mild days on there.