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Everything posted by snow_wizard
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The ECMWF ensemble is in-freeking-sane! Colder than the 0z ensemble and a perfect signature for snow at the 500mb level. The mean heights are shown to be 528 or so for the Seattle area in the 10 to 12 day period. Incredible for a mean that far out! The operational ECMWF showed over 2 inches of snow for this area tomorrow night, and a total of 9 inches through day 8 or so. This is looking potentially incredible. I've been telling people this January has a realistic shot at being the coldest in 50 years. That kind of puts a concerned look on their faces.
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You beat me to it. Simply amazing. The Canadian is just as good or even better. The ECMWF ensemble has been dead nuts on with this thing for a long time now. Very high chance we are still cold when Jan 10 rolls around. We are seeing the ECMWF operational exhibit the exact same error it did about a week ago. This ensemble mean has snow written all over it.
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To me it almost looks like the ECMWF is back to it's old trick of putting too much emphasis on the southern branch / cutoff low again in the day 9 to day 10 period. As you will remember it (and to a lesser extent the GFS) showed that about a week ago for New Years / early next week also. Ensembles are the way to go right now beyond day 7.
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My thoughts for the night. 1. Central Puget Sound sees widespread 1 to 3 inch accumulations New Year's Eve with some place getting 4 or 5 inches. I think the operational model has a better handle on the precip than the WRF. 2. Temperature forecasts for early next week will need to be pruned by about 5 degrees. A couple of days should fail to reach 30...especially if there is snow on the ground. 3. The ensembles continue to look outstanding deep into week 2. This is especially true on the latest GEM ensemble which is incredible tonight. 4. Still a high chance of a major snow event in the 10 to 15 day period.
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The two coldest days in Seattle were 1/31 - 22/3 2/1 - 25/4 The next coldest low in the city was 11 in Jan 1907 and Jan 1950. There was an unofficial -6 recorded at Woodland Park (North Seattle). Supposedly recorded by Arthur Denny who was noted for being very accurate about such things. Unofficial -15 recorded somewhere near Mount Vernon. The Fraser River was reported to have been frozen solidly all the way across. Numerous cold related problems were reported in Seattle.