snow_wizard

Very bleak looking in Winthrop. Almost no snow and slate gray skies. This has to be about the least snow they ever have this time of year.

That is pretty unusual this late in the day.

Considerably cooler today than it has been the last couple of days. Low of 26 this morning and currently 43.

Indeed. I'm very happy with the way the ECMWF looks at day 10.

If you look at the surface pressure maps on day 10 it clearly shows an Arctic front has arrived at Bellingham. Strong northerly gradients. Also look at the evolution between day 9 and 10. No question that is poised for good things here.

SEA was 39 at 11am. A Siberian cold wave for them this month.

I have always loved frosty mornings.

No question there will be a huge pattern shift. The big question is the details.

My grandparents loved that show. At any rate Jesse has a great point. Those of us who have decided to remain optimistic have had huge problems coming on here and seeing nothing but doom and gloom posts all of the time. It has been more depressing than the weather in fact.

Normally I get very worried when the models put off cold weather, but the fact the ECMWF and GFS both deliver after the failed first attempt is somewhat reassuring. The ECMWF ensemble was the first model to pick up on this. Now the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all show the minor cold snap later this week followed by brief moderation and then a second better setup toward day 10. More than anything history is kind of on our side when talking about a major January death ridge in a neutral or cold ENSO winter. Usually it evens out by the time its over. Given the extreme nature of the pattern we are in an opposite extreme should be coming. I'm just thankful my area has gotten through this torch at the 850mb level with mostly below normal temps thanks to cold nights and some foggy cold days.

The Canadian ensemble is the best yet. Going to be the typical ups and downs for the next few days.

The last CFS run was pretty much orgasmic for the NW. Cold for the entire month of Feb.

I totally agree. I am somewhat encouraged by how nice the 12z ECMWF ensemble was by day 7. I think the 6 to 10 day part of the 0z GFS was probably pessimistic. That having been said 850mb temps were still good by hour 204.

One thing for sure is the 18z and 0z both deliver top tier cold. The details will work themselves out. The 0z is better than the 18z for snow.

The CFS has been consistently showing a cold wave in early Feb and one in late Feb the last several runs. Hopefully we can just bridge the gap and have it cold all month.

Welcome back!

The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA.

The ECMWF ensemble continues to improve. One of the more striking things is how the timing is moving up. By hour 156 things look pretty cold. Certainly looks like possible snow with the amount of water trajectory.

I would certainly expect the chances go way up over the next day or two. The Canadian ensemble looked pretty darn good today.

No question that was true in 1899. This could be the coldest winter for the United States as whole in a good many years if everything goes as planned.

There seems to be some indication that snow will be more likely once the cold air is in place and the pattern retrogrades a bit more. You can never rule out a surprise with the Arctic front though. Right now Arctic frontal passage seems to be in the 7 to 9 day period. Going to take some time to nail that down.

One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater.

Dramatic improvement on the Canadian ensemble also. I think this is going to happen!

They need to enable the ability for us to delete our own posts.

That we are. Maybe this means we will get hit in January sometime soon. There is some history of good Febs one winter leading to good Jans the next. That is IF we can avoid a Nino.