snow_wizard

I'm pretty confident but we'll see. I know this stuff pretty well.

You're north of the good dynamics now.

Just a rough guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see King County get a couple of inches.

Not for long. People need to look really close at that coastal radar. Shear.

This is beginning to look potentially serious now. Major slug of precip moving inland now.

If we can get January back we will be just fine. The other months have been doing ok as of late. I'm hoping the VERY low solar next winter can help us.

The temp has stopped rising at a "toasty" 32.7. This will be the coldest day of the event here. Who would have thought....

I'm not sure Mark Nelson is right about Portland. Radar shows snow almost right up to the coast ad in some cases a bit off the coast.

EXCELLENT dynamics with that stuff moving onto the coast. I am very hopeful now.

Interesting. One of my analogs going this winter was 1921-22. Too bad the middle of the winter didn't work out like that one.

Looking like the NWS knew what they were doing ignoring the dry models.

Look at the shear. The main push is from the WNW, but there is a strong southerly push within it.

Mason County is already filling in spite of the main feature still being just at the coast. Looks like el busto for the WRF.

The low of 24 this morning at SEA is up there with the big boys for this late in the season. There are only 8 days going forward that have a lower record.

I am really liking the looks of the Langley Hill radar.

No question. There are periods within the winter time frame that are much more likely to score than others. Obviously Christmas is one of the lest likely days of the winter to score for instance. Might do a thread about this someday.

You can see a nice push from the south ahead of the precip band just hitting the coast. Almost impossible Seattle doesn't score from that. The shear looks quite impressive just like Wednesday.

The ECMWF actually shows a decent chance of snow during the night. Temps in the mid 30s with more moisture than today. It is beginning to appear the EPSL could remain snow through the night.

Last night might have done some of them in.

Moisture is already coming around the south end of the Olympics. The trajectory is what is progged for the 850mb level. That is supposed to become more WSW later today. I think we are going to score.

Looks like dead of winter out there. Still have areas of snow left, the grass has turned kind of gray, 26 degrees, and a slate gray sky, with dead calm winds.

I just noticed on the ensemble graph the 850s only spike to -5 before falling again tonight. When -5 is a spike we are really cold!

Sunday evening would be a good time to score with a fresh shot of cold air moving in. Still many chances after today.

Pretty incredible to have it 26 degrees at mid morning in late February!

Not sure how people can say this area busted when it hasn't happened yet.