snow_wizard

It was incredible this morning. This is one of the few times this century I've had it snow here and be clear and cold the following morning. That makes it very special.

The WRF is late again. D**n.

I didn't say that. I haven't looked much beyond Saturday morning in depth. There could be rain between the exit of the current cold air mass and the arrival of the next one Saturday morning.

The models have certainly moved away from any rain threat at least through early evening tomorrow. The million dollar question is how much moisture we will get. Keep in mind it would normally be no big deal if we got .20 instead of .05 or whatever, but in this case the difference would be huge.

SEA is on a great roll. A -12 departure after a -14 yesterday. Really solid cold snap. IMBY I have had back to back 22 degree lows and tomorrow could go even lower.

Indeed. We should have several opportunities. With true NW flow the C-Zones are likely to work further south than normal. It has been strange watching how stingy the models have been with any snow chances for the Central Puget Sound. Last night shows they are obviously far from perfect on that thought..

It was incredibly pretty here this morning just before sunrise when the snow was glowing under a crisp blue sky. It dropped to 22 so everything was totally froze up and powdery. Just doesn't get any better than that. It is kind of disheartening how the late Feb sun eats the snow though. Also worth noting SEA wiped out their weakest February record today when it dropped to 26 breaking the record of 30. The 26 is right in line with many of the record this time of year. I think this was their first record low in like 3 years or some such thing.

Tomorrow through Saturday morning presents an interesting question. I think it's fairly likely the models are being too stingy with precip amounts for tomorrow for whatever reason. I'm really liking Sat morning for snow in the EPSL as the flow turns NNW at the 850mb and 700mb levels. The WRF has moisture and low 925mb temps early Saturday morning as well. It is possible we could go through the period with no rain when looking at 925mb temps. They will only spike to zero for a brief time east of Puget Sound.

Next winter will be kind of like a slot machine coming up all cherries, or gold bars, or whatever. 1. 8 - 9 winter. 2. The winter before solar min is reached 3. Likely neutral or cold ENSO Things to watch for will be falling PDO and persistent GOA ridging this year.

SEA did break the record low max on 2/21 by 6 degrees. The new record is 34 which beats the 40 set in 1993. I would say the record low of 30 today is sure to fall.

Down to 28 here now. Going to be very icy in the morning.

Yeah...I went into it hoping for 1/2".

Goes to show that having the cold already in place over the interior of BC is quite important. I learned a big lesson about that with the Sunday event.

I'm very unsure about Friday. Now the ECMWF shows Friday night may have a better shot in the cold / unstable air behind the front.

I ended up with exactly 2 inches. I'll take it! Going to get really cold later if it clears out which looks pretty likely.

True. At least it's earned being considered. The thing that's odd is it has shown this area doing well for several runs. It must have picked up on the vort max or something.

Probably Dec 2008 for places in SW BC, the Puget Sound, and NW OR all getting decent snowfall from the same system. I should have known a 150 block would deliver.

Indeed!

1.8" of snow here now and still coming down. Color me shocked. I think we now know the ICON is a very good model in these cases. It outdid the ECMWF by a mile with this.

Looks very possible we see one more shot of cold continental air before it finally warms up too. Speaking of cold air I'm thinking mid 30s or so for highs again tomorrow with that fresh shot coming from Canada.

Holy crap! The radar is back filling like crazy now. Might end up with 2 or 3 inches. In other news it appears a fresh shot of cold is beginning to filter down from the north now. What an amazing run of late winter cold.

The ICON nailed it.

Very pretty out there!

Still snowing pretty hard here. Really looking nice!