snow_wizard

The easterly gradients shown o the NAM with this system are anemic so I can't imagine the ESPL having an east wind problem. We're just going to have to wait and see.

Really cold today. The temp has already started to slowly drop after peaking at 34. Going to be some big minus departures today. Nice heavy cloud cover now.

The Euro showed that won't be an issue and that model is acutely aware of that potential when it's there.

Pretty exciting. the improvement between the 0z and 12z runs on the Euro was highly encouraging also. I think the fact the winds have become southerly through the Puget Sound basin is actually very good in this case. Sets up convergence potential and limits the chances of dry east wind killing the moisture.

Looks like it might stay cold enough for snow to accumulate even during the warmest part of the day this time. This appears it will be the coldest disturbance of the entire series at this point.

Amazing how this cold snap just keeps giving us these reinforcing shots of cold air. It was originally expected highs would rebound to the low 40s after just a few days. Now we have a legit shot at highs below 40 for at least 6 consecutive days. I'm trying to respect the impressiveness of this cold snap in spite of the snow problems so far.

I'm thinking we will probably see something with today's system. Looks a bit different than yesterday's.

The GFS has finally shaken off it's anti snow thoughts for Seattle. MUCH better.

GFS shows all snow for Tacoma northward now on Friday. Trending colder on each run with that feature.

I'm almost wondering if some places could have freezing high temps today. Really cold this morning, thicknesses falling during the day, and rapidly increasing clouds. Looks like it dropped to 23 here this morning.

The 6z GFS ha snow for King County with the Friday system also. Let's see if the 12z continues that.

The ICON is pretty darn good for King County tonight. Who knows... In other news the 6z ensemble mean keeps the 850s at -9 or lower for better than 2 days. Extended again.

As of today SEA is now running below normal for Feb. Nearly 0.5 below in fact. Got to love those double digit minus departures. Hard to believe we still have a good two days of solid cold left before it moderates a tad.

For here 2007 - 2012 was really on the right track and then it just went to snow wise. No doubt from a cold outbreak perspective we are worlds better than 1999 - 2006. That period was nightmarish.

Yup...this is kind of like the cold outbreaks of 2013-14. I have no idea what is preventing a classic 1950s type block from developing. The details are just wrong.

Terrible decade here. I've only had three winters that have had over 6". This one still could since I'm really close.

I highly doubt much will come of tomorrow night for Seattle. Wrong low track.

The EPS says the ECMWF operational is way too warm. Not too surprising.

I'll die of shock if that actually happens. Who knows though...our luck has to change at some point.

You have to understand why some of us are so grouchy right now.

April 1951 would be perfect IMO. Lots of sun and frost almost every night.

Just don't pay attention when I'm like this. I just feel like we have been cheated for years now with these things. In reality you guys have been scoring with pretty much every cold snap.

Latest GFS ensemble shows 850s bottoming at around -11.5 for SEA Thursday morning. Incredible sustained 850s below -9 from Sunday through Friday morning with this event.

You can almost bet on it now that we have had this big flip. Probably lots of GOA ridging.

Looks like it shows 2" for Portland tomorrow night.