snow_wizard

Yup. There is simply no mechanism to turn the systems inland over southern WA. Snow would be a virtual lock if that could happen. Terribly frustrating to have a 150 block and not get anything out of it. In all seriousness NW OR is due to be snubbed for about 5 years while Seattle gets nailed regularly.

It doesn't agree with the 12z EPS at all so it's probably wrong.

I want a dry / northerly flow dominated spring. I hate the dreary miserable springs we have normally been getting lately.

I'm thinking the chances are at least 50% Seattle won't score a decent snow out of this entire cold snap. Tonight's Euro is really bad, but it could be wrong.

The Euro is terrible on this run.

Perhaps. They did have some pretty epic fails for Seattle during the weekend though.

About the only good news for the Seattle area is it's clear tonight and it will get really cold.

The Euro kind of sucks late in the week. A lot of rain. Booo.

Nov 1985 was made up of multiple systems. It was basically Jan 1950 in November.

Looking at the reanalysis on the 500mb pattern that delivered the Arctic front I can see it why we didn't get much snow here. A while back I did a composite of 500mb maps associated with Arctic fronts that delivered snow to Seattle and ones that didn't. This one was squarely in the low snow camp. Next time around I'm going to use that data to make my snow predictions with the Arctic front.

The cold is just unreal for this time of year too. 850s stay -10 though much of Thursday night now. What a waste. This never used to happen. It used to be that a high percentage of cold waves like this delivered significant snow to Seattle. Every significant cold event since Jan 2012 (and there have been several) has failed to do so. Even the snows we have gotten the last couple of winters were without major cold in play.

I'll be ok in the summer when this is all a vague memory.

I know. I regret it for days on end every winter that I didn't think it through more clearly when we moved last time.

I don't get anything out of traveling to snow.

I have my doubts about the system tomorrow evening up here. These d**n things that slide down the coast get killed by the dry air flowing through the Cascade passes when they reach the Puget Sound lowlands. I honestly have to say it's almost unbelievable that Seattle normally averages as much or more snowfall than Portland given all of the hoops you have jump through to get snow here. Somehow, though, Seattle has still scored many great snowstorms in spite of that. As I've mentioned before one of things that really seems to kill us is when the western trough digs too deep. Seattle does much better when the trough only effects the northern part of the West. For whatever reason we have been unable to achieve that configuration since Jan 2012.

See...the people in Oregon couldn't give a about us up here. Not saying it wouldn't be the same if the situation were reversed. Simply the ugly side of human nature.

Let me know when one of these maps shows snow for us.

It always evens out. ALWAYS.

I know. At work today I was so angry I didn't say a word to anybody for at least half the day. I think I bottomed out with that. It's hard to not be impressed with this cold episode regardless of the snow, but I feel so left out. No doubt the models continuing to lengthen and deepen to cold period is only good for us.

Looks like a classic. God knows we deserve it.

It just kind of blows my mind the air mass will be colder 24 hours from now that it is now. Absolutely no warming until at least Friday now. It even appears it will be clear for much of the night so we can finally get our hard freeze here. The longer the cold goes on the more likely it is Seattle will finally score. I am however at an utter loss to explain the incredibly bad luck we are having up here. Since 2012 pretty much every major cold pattern we have had has had something wrong with it to allow Seattle to score a big snow.

I wasn't going to post anything tonight, but I have to point out both the ICON and GFS are colder on everything through day 5 at least. Absolutely amazing how the cold keeps getting added to. The GFS continues to be amazingly stingy on Seattle snow however.

It's beginning to appear the weird scenario being hinted at by the models of the NAO block and PNA block connecting may indeed happen. I don't think I've seen that this entire century so far. This whole situation is blocky, cold, and wet enough for a long enough time I would say everyone will get snow at some point.

I would be shocked if that happened, but it's possible I guess.

I've gone through this too many years. I have earned the right to melt down from time to time. One thing I'm totally serious about though is I am sick of this climate. I can't state it strongly enough.