snow_wizard

Word cannot describe how much I despise and loathe this climate. You wait the whole f***** winter to get a good pattern and when it comes there's high chance it will **** you in the *** when it comes. I can't get away from this god forsaken place soon enough.

Pretty disastrous GFS run for Seattle. One legit snow chance and that's it in spite of all the 150 blocking. So much for Fraser river blasts and 150 ridges being good for this area. Now it's not even looking like it will get that cold tonight. What a turd this mess has turned into.

Maybe.

This entire event has been a train wreck here so far. Totally clear, no wind and the temp is stuck at 30 degrees in spite of a dp in the teens. This F'ing cold wave just can't do anything right here.

We'll see if the 0z runs will give the Puget Sound members anything to talk about. There has been some serious hinting in the models our time may come by this weekend. Still a shot at some snow with the feature tomorrow / tomorrow night for places south of Seattle.

The ECMWF is the one to watch on this. It has been the most consistent by far.

Imagine that....

The -NAO being depicted later this month on the models is almost cartoonish in it's scope. It's going to be interesting to see how that will interact with the -PNA.

The Euro shows a ton of chances. Maybe one of them will happen.

Central WA, Spokane, or Missoula. I've had it with this climate and that has been the case for a while now. Not only the agonizing ordeal to get snow, but also the gloom the second half of winter and in the spring.

For the first time I can ever remember I could care less how cold it gets tonight with this cold air mass as long as it freezes. I feel like my a$$ has been kicked this winter. At least this late cold will kill off some of the bugs. I am just bone tired.

All I know is they used to get snow easily. Same exact terrain and everything. It was cold for weeks last winter and we never got anything until the February event and that was with cold not in place. Historically Seattle gets at least as much snow as Portland.

Portland always does lately. Nothing new there.

The water EQ here was pretty weak.

I think the thicknesses up there might even go lower than 514. I think having the cold air already in place in BC is important going into these. In this case it was advecting in as the pattern unfolded. I learned something new from this.

Maybe this will help the cause to give us the post super nino global cooling we have been due for. Maybe about 10 of these will finally make it snow in Seattle.

I've talked to my wife extensively about my need to move and hopefully some of things we need to have play out will happen to make it possible sooner than later. January through April is just too depressing for me most years. No matter what the move will happen.

Everything is certainly as clear as mud now. The GFS shows the pattern going too far west around a week out, although I'm far from convinced it's right yet.

That is a pretty good shot alright.

I've been trying to play along that I'm hopeful about the subsequent possible snow events, but I'm in the mood now to just be real about it. In general Seattle does terrible with lows that slide down the coast. We need them to make landfall over SW WA to really have any chance at anything good. Another rule of thumb I've noticed is Seattle doesn't do well when the Western trough plunges very far south like this one is doing. This pattern simply doesn't allow systems to move inland anywhere near a favorable location for us. NW OR is closer to the coast and the systems are in the process of moving closer to the coast as they move south. The one we should have scored with was today's system. The big question is why are so many cold waves coming without getting decent snowfall here. If you look at past decades it was much less common for the Puget Sound region to fail like this. At this point I'm just going to live with it and count the days until I can move to a better area. It's as simple as that.

There was a big eruption?

You had 2013-14 also and we failed miserably then too.

We are incredibly unlucky here...no doubt about it. I'm sure the mid week event will be south of us too. I could easily envision us going through the entire cold wave with nothing here.

We did get the Feb snow last winter and the Christmas snow this winter, but we are still way behind since 2012. The thing that really kills me on today's event is it was a Fraser River blast. Those are usually good for Seattle.

Looks like mostly south of Seattle. Let's hope the Euro keeps showing snow for us from the mid week system.