snow_wizard

I continue to be giddy about the cold snaps the models keep adding to the coming week. Thicknesses almost never go above 522 now for quite some time.

No doubt. Past experience counts heavily also. I've seen enough of these to recognize it looks quite promising. It would be very surprising to not see anything out of this.

It's almost scary having the WRF look this good. I'm used to it showing nothing and being wrong.

Probably from the second low dropping down. Once that gets south Bellingham and outflow winds will kick in. I'm going to watching the Fraser outflow temps closely tonight.

It's going to be all CAA tonight.

The ICON is just as cold on Monday night as the previous run. That's going to be the one to watch for really cold temps.

Never underestimate the Germans. Very talented and cutting edge people usually. I'm just wondering how they can afford a computer that can do a higher res model than the GFS.

Yeah...it's probably not going to be quite the fast hitting blast I had expected earlier. On the other hand I think temps will be around freezing when snow is falling.

I guess the model is VERY high resolution, but I'm not sure if the algorithms are as good as the other models. We shall see I guess.

I would say a hair actually.

The ICON shows the 522 thickness dropping through around midnight. After that it's snow!

Indeed. I think it's at least 80% of late season cold events that have decent snowfall. Maybe higher.

I seriously wonder if the models will ever be good enough to accurately depict situations like this. I think the Olympics make it nearly impossible. A trajectory difference of just a couple of degrees can make the difference between no snow and several inches. Insanely difficult here.

No doubt the mid week thing has potential. Now that models have trended so cold with that the stakes are high!

I never trust those kinds of sites.

I'll be watching until 1 at least.

Every model has shown snow here....even this one. I'm feeling pretty good.

Already down to 40 here. Things are advancing nicely.

We'll do fine.

Maybe not, but we have a number of models that are better.

You have to wonder. The NAM isn't even worth mentioning IMO. It's never right. Even when it is you have no idea that will be the time it's right.

The latest GFS shows two more significant cold shots...one around day 5 ad the other around day 11. 850s drop to -9 on both.

The NAM is terrible. I never use it anymore.

Doesn't matter IMHO.

I'm not at all confident that area won't get snow.