snow_wizard

Wow! Fantastic GEFS run tonight. Considerably colder than the 18z which was itself cold.

Why does anyone need to calm down? This is the coldest run yet.

The positive anomaly center is in the sweet spot on this run. Very near where it was in Jan 1950. Maybe just a tad less amplified.

This run digs back better than the 18z. Very solid blast being shown.

No doubt the high pressure over the GOA looks more robust on this run vs the 18z.

Really no reason to be negative about the upcoming pattern. Huge potential for many of us.

I'm not expecting anything from that one, but it's not impossible.

Everything looks just a shade better with the mid week trough. So far so good.

The EPS looked pretty cold with mid week trough on the 12z run. That has a good chance to over perform IMO.

The things I've been watching are the position and intensity of the low the models are showing near Hawaii and the position and intensity of the high heights over the Gulf of Alaska with the mid week trough. Those set the stage for the fun stuff later.

The low of 40 on Tuesday is just plain laughable.

Besides that the way it's acting now kind of suggests better things to come. Tonight will be our second push of Canadian air in just a couple days time.

It would be the biggest model bust since Jan 2005 if it fails. EVERYTHING including the CFS is on board.

The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now. I knew they were way too warm for most days. They also have snow showers for Sunday.

I'm glad you are on board.

The control model on the 18z GEFS is pretty wild. 850s around -15 for a sustained period of time. The mean is 7C below normal with the big cold wave now.

It certainly goes that way sometimes. 1962 had an utter torch for quite some time before the late Feb / early March cold wave.

The way it sustains the cold is really noteworthy.

OMG this run is cold!

All I can say is the folks in Whatcom County had better break out the heavy coats. Just one round of Fraser outflow after another.

To me the situation at day 9 or 10 looks like it's not going anywhere anytime soon. Really exciting.

Holy crap! A reload just on the heels of the big blast. This is looking potentially top tier for a late season cold wave.

Hopefully this new pattern coming up will reconfigure the Pacific SST's to more of a -PDO. That should help wipe out some of the warmth around 30N...at least in the eastern part of the basin.

It looks like we're locking this thing in now. Just minor differences in detail 18z vs 12z.

Good point. I already hinted at work that winter may not be over.