snow_wizard

Good point. I already hinted at work that winter may not be over.

He was pretty bummed about January, but I'm surprised today's model runs haven't brought him back.

It's nice to know something like 1890 or early March 1865 can happen this late. I think if you look a the entire window from mid Feb to early March there are a number of impressive examples. I would consider that entire time frame relevant at this point.

Not to mention we often do well with these SSW events when they first happen. In this case the pattern is doing a 180 degree reversal. Given where we have been that can only be good.

I'm sure they will drop the temps just like have form tomorrow and Tuesday now. I just can't figure how they can go for normal temps when we have three cold troughs dropping down over the next week.

The NWS forecast is a complete joke. It doesn't even reflect the mid week cold shot which all models agree on now.

The northerly flow is really taking hold now. Puffy clouds racing out of the north with brisk north winds at the surface here. Finally!

The EPS is a good two notches colder than the 0z. Even the mid week thing shows Arctic air making it right to the border. The mean bottoms out with 850s about 7C below normal on this a little over a week out. Really impressive for a mean that far out.

I was actually beginning to have doubts, but every time I looked deeply into it I figured we would score before it was over.

Back to back 33 degree lows for SEA. While decently below normal they are still looking for their first freeze in several weeks.

Or how about 29 on March 3, 1955. Might be a day or two off on that date, but it's close.

Pretty hard to imagine the low snowfall totals being shown on this Euro run considering the way the trough digs out over the ocean. If we have snow on the ground the temps could really be eye popping.

I think now we can start to worry about details. This looks like an exceptional cold period coming up for this late in the season. The duration looks to be amazing. Years like 1951, 1962, and 1971 go to show sustained cold waves can happen this late. Looks like the GOA ridge that my NPS index indicated for this winter is coming in spades now. Let's hope we can all score some snow. On another note it would appear the CFS proved to be useful assuming the cold wave verifies. It didn't bite on any of the false alarms earlier this winter in the short range, but it did on this one.

This is still early enough to be good.

Looks like it's going to get cold around here and possibly for an extended period. Might be some dead daffodils to clean up after this.

You are kind of missing the cold elephant in the room though.

The Euro paints a cold picture that could last for an unusually long time for a late season cold snap. The blocking is still there at day 10 and about to reconfigure. Huge potential here.

Look at the 850s. Really cold.

I think the problem with this ECMWF solution is it's too dry. At least it gets really cold though. Too early to worry about any details yet anyway.

I think our chances of success have exceeded 50% now. This will be a good test for my theory about the CFS. For some reason it seems to be a good filter for cold snaps in the shorter range. I noticed that last winter too.

The ECMWF says YES. Cold delivered by day 8.

The momentum on the GFS / GEFS is favorable right now. We just need to keep it going.

I was referring to the surface pressure signature when I said that. Just not any Arctic air to work with. It will still get pretty chilly though.

Nice improvement on the GEFS. Much stronger GOA ridge signal and further west.

This is actually an Arctic outbreak pattern, but the cold air we have to work with is pretty weak unfortunately.