snow_wizard

Very good news to see the north winds getting so far south already.

No doubt the east wind is actually helping a bit tonight. Still dropping very slowly here and the Fire Training Academy outside of North Bend at 1500 feet is at 32.

That is really surprising.

The temp is dropping very slowly here. It would seem there is more cold air over Central WA now than there was with the Friday event. Down to 37 with a few drops of rain passing the splat test. I'm still feeling confident about tomorrow morning. It is likely the precip will continue longer than the WRF is indicating due to this area being on the NW quadrant of the surface low at that time.

This is going to be an exceptional winter IMO. All of the boxes are checked for a really good one.

There is an obvious problem with the WRF already. It's already colder in Bellingham than it shows them being late tonight. I'm not buying the nearly snowless solution it's showing. Given the improvement in the operational GFS I'm pretty optimistic for snow in a number of areas.

The operational GFS is slightly more aggressive with the cold and wetter /snowier than previous runs for tomorrow morning. If it's correct 925s drop to -3 over Western King County...the coldest values of anywhere for Western WA. Backwash situations are excellent for King County. The Olympics play into it somehow.

I think everyone is going to have fun this winter.

Backwash behind a low tracking south of here is usually a good bet. The models are usually too light with precip is those cases. That is what made it snow here on New Years 2004.

I'm hoping for an inch. Two is possible I suppose.

The models do show a brief period of warming 850mb and 925mb temps this evening. Well have to see how it plays out. At any rate we get good CAA late tonight.

Looks like SEA is going to tie the record low max for the day after breaking the record yesterday. Kind of interesting to note all of the record low max temps this time of year are really old ones (pre 1975).

I have a bit an easterly breeze here also. The temp has dropped from 39 to 38.

For my area I do better when the low is straight S and SE of me like it will be late tonight and tomorrow morning.

I don't think I've ever seen the NAM anywhere near right about these things.

That far north you might have a shot at avoiding rain. Tough call.

The NWS seems to have a very good handle on things. They have the snow level over the EPS lowlands being higher than Seattle tonight, but indicate the level plunging to the surface tomorrow morning with accumulations to 2 inches.

The 18z is a tad more aggressive at bringing in the colder air late tonight. It actually indicates the coldest 925mb temps will be in Western King County tomorrow with readings dropping to about -3. Certainly cold enough for snow. I'm liking our chances. No doubt (well little doubt) most areas will be rain early in the night.

One last thing worth mentioning is the possibility of record cold low temps Monday and Tuesday mornings. It's apparent cold / dry air will effectively flood the Puget Sound region tomorrow. It's going to come to possible snow cover and how much it's able to clear out. Could be some interesting numbers if things go just right.

A couple of pieces of good news at least from the standpoint of the WRF. 1. Temps in the Puget Sound are colder than were progged as of this time. 2. Agassiz is getting colder with NE winds. 28 degrees which is way colder than the WRF had progged for this time. The Fraser river cold being more advanced than expected means cold air can start flowing down Puget Sound more readily in response to northerly gradients which will be developing tonight. Once the low center moves east of the East Puget Sound lowlands winds will become more NNW which will allow the cold air to flood into the EPS lowlands very quickly in the early morning. The last piece of the puzzle is the fact models almost always underdo precip when the Central Puget Sound is on the NW quadrant of a surface low. I still have pretty good hope for this area tomorrow morning. Given the more advanced stage of the Fraser River outflow at this point areas from Seattle to Everett may fare better tonight than I had thought earlier.

One thing that could help tonight is decent precip rates.

I'm not surprised by that picture. Arctic air dammed up against the north slopes of the Olympics which combined with moisture the cold air picked up off the Strait, and was then lifted by the mountains.

The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November. In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs. Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months. We will see soon enough if I've really found something here.

Hard to imagine anyone at 500 getting that much. You never know though.

Probably not cold enough. We need to get into the backwash sector of the low.