TT-SEA

I was thinking the same thing. And the models are definitely starting to lean towards keeping some degree of troughing hanging back to the west next week with a big ridge over BC. The 06Z GFS went in that direction as well. This pattern would be frigid in the winter but now its not even that chilly. And certainly not how BC gets some late season snow.

Our BBQ is on a covered patio... we do that in the middle of winter sometimes! And the BC situation is the result of Nino focusing the systems on CA. When BC is the center of attention then we usually have a droughty CA. Can't have it all.

I wasn't even talking about 80-degree weather... more like 60s which is pretty common for April.

00Z ECMWF on the hand is no longer progressive with the trough later next week. Looks more like the GEM now. 00Z GEFS is still progressive though. Interesting model battle developing.

Liking the 00Z GFS so far... beautiful weekend then rain on Monday and clearing Tuesday and then back to sunny and mild.

Nice!

Don't be so hard on yourself Chris. And pointing out intentionally silly predictions is not mocking.

That was just payback for the sh*tshow that was May 2022.

Plus we have some of the best summer weather in the country in between.

We don't average much rain over the next few months. Even drier than normal won't push us into "severe drought".

I must be getting old. Just seems so pointless.

One additional note... it wasn't a comment that drought is possible. That is true. It was "severe drought incoming". Right in line with other comments like 100 degree temps all summer and massive blizzards and the strongest Nina ever recorded next winter. Just extreme hyperbole for the sake of extreme hyperbole. Meaningless.

Prayers for anyone arriving home to a pleasant weekend in the 60s. Ecosystem destroying madness for mid April. I guess our short respite from endless whining is over.

Yes... a trough for a couple days early next week is a given. But ECMWF and EPS show that its quite progressive and fairly dry.

Lovely afternoon... particularly after the last few days have been generally gloomy and wet. Nice to see days like this might become more frequent over the next couple of weeks.

12Z EPS is warm in the west and cool in the east in the long range.

12Z ECMWF doesn't look like the GEM... but assume this is still a hot pattern for you.

Well it didn't totally crash... we are still getting a sunny and very pleasant weekend out of the deal. When it originally showed the crash it looked like it might end up being the 40s with rain all weekend but we got a nice rebound in the models.

Total outlier even within its own ensemble mean... and also in complete contrast to the GEFS and EPS.

If you just looked at the satellite you would think a wet weekend was in store... but instead it will be a sunny weekend up here and wet in California.

Its hyperbole.

More extreme hyperbole for the sake of extreme hyperbole.

EPS was quite dry over the next 2 weeks.

Of course SSTAs alone don't predict our local weather has we have seen in recent years. But I am liking the odds of a white Christmas this year.

Mariners are so pathetic.