TT-SEA

I am honestly getting a strong feeling that we will have an arctic outbreak and snow at some point in the second half of November.

Seems like that is the case. This area and the entire Snoqualmie Valley was also subject to extensive cold east wind last winter and it was a very slow start to spring. So the flip side might be a long and drawn out fall color season.

FROST? Do you mean FROST?

You're overreacting to my reaction to your comment.

And sunny at that time too.

That is a good description of the current situation. Jesse should remember that I also posted a picture today of our Coral Bark Japanese Maples on fire right now. A veritable "fall fuckfest". That does not fit his narrative. On other hand... we also have native trees that have not budged and still look the same as they did in June. What will we do??? Maybe a windstorm will solve the problem!

I know its the 18Z GFS... but it does show the fire hose breaking up by Sunday morning which would be nice. This does not agree with the ECMWF so its probably wrong.

The late start to spring and the frequent rains over the last month probably explain the delay. Its a live web cam. Its not biased... its just showing what it looks like right now. I can't change that to match your narrative. Just something I noticed. I can see the same thing with my own eyes by driving down our road.

Starting to see clouds to the north from the slowly approaching front. Although models show it will not starting raining here until tomorrow morning. Temp jumped up to 68 with some wind picking up. You can also see that the trees in the Snoqualmie Valley are still mostly green.

Better be at the top of the road like us! I bet we get 2 or 3 times as much snow on average than at the bottom of our road which is probably 500 feet lower and almost down to the same elevation as North Bend.

Its his office view in Salem. Fog clearing typically does improve visibility dramatically. Have you seen it happen before? He had like 600 inches of snow in March 2012 at his house. His favorite month ever!

We have Comcast "Blast" now... 175mbps speed. Our internet speed at home is way better than at my office now. A necessity with 3 kids streaming Netflix simultaneously!

Love our Japanese Maples... putting on a show right now.

Looks pretty nasty for the weekend. Then totally dry on Monday. Great timing.

??? I thought 3 inches of rain every day was perfect fall weather? I think you have some different preferences than you normally espouse here.

12Z GFS is a really nice run after we get through a few days of a fire hose moving back and forth across the region. Looks very much like the 00Z run overall.

And only in response to trolling.

12Z GFS shows an even more amplified ridge behind the first one... and this one is MUCH cooler.

BS... the EPS has been showing some type of ridge building around 10/22 for several days. It looks like it will be correct. Probably will not last long. A clipper seems very likely as I have said several times. Either way... the fire hose pattern will probably be broken up starting Sunday.

And then it might turn drier after that... looks beautiful again by Thursday on the 12Z GFS. Who knows? Not any of us.

My ridge? I don't own it. Nature does. I have no idea how it will evolve. Crashing the top of a ridge with a clipper seems like a very reasonable and normal progression. Does not mean it will work out that way though.

Making a discussion on the models into something personal again as usual.

I agree... this all makes me think there could be an arctic outbreak and snow even as early as Thanksgiving.

12Z GEM agrees on a big ridge early next week as well...

It does move through fairly quickly on the 12Z GFS. Its pretty much focused just on Saturday.