TT-SEA

00Z ECMWF sure has different ideas in the 8-10 day period.

Through day 6:

Came through Stevenson tonight... looks like a really nice town even in the dark. We went around through Yakima to avoid traffic. We left home in the sun and drove into rain on the east side of the mountains. And then had rain from Goldendale to Lyle and drove out of it going west. Backwards!

00Z GFS is mostly dry for the next 17 days except for a few showers now and then. Some dry weather will be greatly appreciated after all this rain for the last 5 days. It will be nice to enjoy the best part of fall without worrying about smoke ruining the views or it being too dry.

Clearing has reached Seattle:

Last year at this time in the middle to end of September... all of the alders around here were already bare. They just gave up. And our big-leaf maple was dropping leaves fast. The cottonwoods were all yellow and losing leaves as well. It was actually worse last year than in 2015 and that was pretty bad. This summer had a much more impressive dry, warm streak than last year and yet the trees look really good. It has to be related to the insanely wet spring. The alders are still completely green... same with the big-leaf maple and cottonwoods. I am hopeful for good fall color this year around here now that everything has been thoroughly soaked again. That should extend the fall colors.

I know its perfectly normal to get copious rain here. And its likely been much wetter than the last 2 years if you go back hundreds and thousands of years. That is why I enjoy the nice weather periods so much. I would definitely enjoy just a normal rain total this winter instead of breaking more records going back to the 1800s. Or maybe a drier than normal winter for a change? On average it is dry here on about 32% of the days from November through March. It rained on over 90% of the days in the winter of 2015-16. Last winter was definitely better but that was soured by getting rain on over 95% of the days from February through the middle of May. Give me periods of offshore flow and sunny days between the rain (which is perfectly normal) and I am good. Offshore flow was almost completely absent in 2015-16. That was pretty unusual.

I have noticed it many times as well.

I fixed the ECWMF images above. They will stay the same in the future now. Side note... I am forced to host WB images like the EPS map above and they have always been locked in.

When I host an image through this site... it never changes in the future: https://postimages.org/ When I right click on a model image on a model site and select 'copy image address' and paste that into the image box in the forum... the image will change as the model changes. Not good but its easy in the moment.

I think you are saying I should host more images which would lock it in instead of copying the image address from the model page which will change in the future. This is very true and a good idea... it just comes down to being lazy. We are talking about two different things in the models. The ECMWF and the control and EPS are ridgy runs. And the EPS is warm right through day 15 except for a dent at day 9. You are focusing on the dent and saying it would break up the ridging. That is very true. I feel like you expect nothing but ridging and take joy in any cold air intrusion... and I now expect nothing but troughing and I am surprised by a ECMWF and EPS run that is basically ridgy for the next 15 days.

I think the 500mb pattern tells the overall story better. Again... this is just the 00Z run but the control and EPS agree. Looks like a trough is coming at day 9 but its a glancing blow... and the ridge pops back up. Day 9 Day 10

Yeah... but the ridge pops right back. Its a small dent on the 00Z runs. Could easily change of course.

The 00Z ECMWF was quite ridgy and basically stays that way through the end of the run. And the 00Z ECMWF control run and the 00Z EPS are in agreement with the operational run. In fact... the 00Z EPS is quite warm all the way through the 15-day period. Here is the 850mb temp mean for days 11-15 (and it still warm at day 15):

Then its completely natural for that area and the trees are acclimated or will die off quickly in dry periods. Its probably been happening for thousands of years there. You can't expect the weather to be sopping wet year around so that that your trees growing in rock don't dry out.

For the record... the North Bend pic was very real.

Tragic summmer there... rain stopped for a couple months with scorching hot highs in the 70s.

Some yellow trees now. And we had very little rain for 3 months. And it was much hotter here than there most of that time.

Meanwhile in North Bend...

I doubt the first 5 of those days even get to normal though.

He actually responded to my Victoria post from earlier today. I was trolling him before he even arrived. It was buried on a previous page and he found it and responded. I was not responding to anything. Just trolling.

But it really is sopping wet and quickly turning lush green again here. That is true. And I am trolling him.

Sopping wet and turning lush PNW green again here... like most of the region.

What about 1989 as an analog? Warm and dry second half of summer and Hugo taking a similar track with similar strength as Maria at the same time. And someone posted a map in the CA thread showing a deep trough diving into CA on 9/19/89.

Alex Jones!