TT-SEA

We agree more than you portray on here... the worst parts of this summer were the really hot periods IMO.

Whew! My greatest hope is that you are having fun!

Calm down Jesse... I am just having fun.

You started all of this! Sanctimonious. I made a simple post this morning. See above. I think you read it like I was saying 100-degree heat was coming back.

12Z ECMWF output for Seattle... remember it frequently runs 3-5 degrees too cool for the Seattle area. Case in point... it showed 70 for today but the actual high was 74. Normal high by the end of next week at SEA is 67.

Indeed.

This was my first post of the morning... responding to Jared who said there was no GFS ensemble support for what GobBluth said:

Thanks Jesse. I am not overselling it. I did not say hot... I did not even say warmer than normal. The best I said today was around normal. This all started because I was pointing out that there was some ensemble support for what GobBluth said... you said it would probably push over the top for a very warm September. I did not even say that.

No. I am sure that was about this current trough. The real deal for next week was not in sight. I was just pointing out that Jim was overselling it... which he was. Not a big deal.

Trying to find that post. I have not been cheering against troughing this month at all... and in fact hoping it comes. So I think you took it out of context. But can't find it based on those keywords. I remember something like that though.

I attacked Jim in the last 5 days? You are being sanctimonious.

You are trying to find examples from the past and use it to stir up crap now. Just like you accused Matt of doing to you an hour ago. You asked what I based on my statement on that ridging would start to build back in around day 7 or 8. I answered you. I did not say searing record heat and a death ridge. Never said that. This started around 8 a.m. when I said there was some ensemble support for what Gobuth said about ridging coming back around the 23rd. There was then and there is now. So simple.

EPS at day 5... EPS at day 10... I would say there is a ridge starting to build back in during that period.

Not that I can find. I posted it here but that was a decade ago.

ECMWF and EPS. Trough is moving out and ridge starts to build in around day 7 or 8.

I don't really care about the 18Z GFS ensembles in the long range. I said it probably starts building around day 7.

And June except for a couple days. And a good chunk of August. And of course July was probably the most pleasant summer possible.

I think ridge starts building back in around day 7. And I would not be bothered by trough posts... particularly if it was likely going to happen. There was not much possibility of that this summer.

That is usually the case. However... I suspect irritable Jesse is coming back pretty soon after troughing arrives. I think the worst case scenario for the TIM index would be ridgy and hot for all of September. I was getting anxious earlier in the month. I love seeing a deep trough and then another ridge in the models. Hopefully sets the stage for a variable fall and winter.

You wish buddy!

The goofy 18Z GFS is a little slower getting there than the ECMWF and EPS... but it does bring back ridging for the last part of the month as well.

I know. The 18Z GFS is far superior to the ECMWF and EPS. Sorry about that.

Right. Not a big deal... we need the rain. And a strong jet stream is more enjoyable than meandering systems anyways. Also... the 12Z ECMWF looks like this on the next day.

Had SEA been able to reach 70 last Saturday (high was 68) then the 70+ streak would have reached 80 days before ending this coming Sunday. So close.

Elevation is not the entire story though. I don't think the Lakemont area of Bellevue at the same elevation as this area had anything close to 150 inches that winter. Its a combination of elevation and exposure to outflow through Snoqualmie Pass and some protection from onshore flow (Rattlesnake Ridge). North Bend did not have nearly as much snow as we did here in 2007-08 but it had way more snow than the Seattle area due to exposure to outflow. Still... there were many days when there was nothing in town while we were buried up here.