TT-SEA

00Z ECMWF shows Irma at 945mb right now... the latest observation is actually 925mb. So the 00Z ECMWF shows it 13mb lower than now on Sunday morning (945 down to 932). If its too high by 20mb like it is now then that translates to 912mb upon landfall in Florida.

It never ends. I always appreciate blue sky and sunshine here.

Naples is ground zero on Sunday morning per the 00Z ECMWF.

00Z ECMWF has Irma at 942mb and a little farther southwest at 48 hours.

Get ready to see 'Miami Strong' everywhere.

After a gloomy week of smoke... we have a solid marine layer day tomorrow and then a front with rain on Saturday. Looking forward to the sun on Sunday... it will have been almost a week since we have seen blue sky.

The smoke is finally cleared out on Saturday! Montana has been stuck no matter which way the smoke mass ebbs and flows.

I was just thinking that maybe we will have an earthquake just to add to the natural disaster fun and then the report came in that there was an 8.0 in Mexico.

Going to be weakening and should pass north of those eastern islands before turning north into the middle of the Atlantic. Poor Barbuda might feel the strongest effects.

Very true.

Looks like Jose will not be a factor at all. The media is starting to hype it as being another big hurricane bearing down on the same places destroyed by Irma. But Jose is going to be weakening and turning out to sea.

Looking at video of where Irma has already been... wind damage might be pretty catastrophic in Miami if Irma goes right over the city or just to the west.

Wind damage will be much more extensive with this path compared to a path like Andrew which roared in the from the east and cut a small path of destruction.

Isn't this trajectory worse? Everyone gets their turn in the NE quadrant.

Nice map.

Actually... even the runs yesterday kept the rain much closer on Sunday and it would have probably been cloudy and cool up there. But its looks warmer and sunnier now.

00Z GFS still shows a decent front for us on Saturday. Sunday might be back to sunny and warm... but with blue sky instead of smoke.

Irma is over 85-degree water now... but there is 89-degree water in its path towards Florida. Maybe that is why its shown to deepen? 00Z GFS is the worst case scenario for Miami. Actually its shows the worst case scenario for the entire east coast of Florida.

Probably good for our winter chances. And probably good for another disgusting spring.

00Z NAM basically misses Florida as Irma curves to the NE at the last minute. A huge eastward shift compared to its 12Z run.

The middle of the Everglades might be the best hope. Worst wind between Naples and Miami. There is nothing between those cities except for alligators. Probably too narrow though to spare both coasts.

Yes... the trough in one week looks solid now. And the EPS shows 850mb temps at or above normal again starting on day 9. Here is day 10... definitely would not say its cool from "day 6 on"

I always talk about the control run. When it agrees well with the ECMWF then its a good sign. It agrees on the trough later next week. EPS is definitely troughy for a couple days later next week. But its not troughy overall. Here is day 10... I understand that it goes to climo in the long range... but it does not look troughy for most of the run.

The ECMWF control run and the EPS show the trough later next week now... but the control run is really warm for a good part of the run and the EPS does not show any sustained western troughing.

Moving west though.