TT-SEA

Clouds should still be thick at that time. Its not as pretty flying in when you can't see the ground until the last second. Should be sunny by 1 or 2 p.m. though. MOS guidance is around 80 so the afternoon and evening should be spectacular.

You are going to straight up freeze in Everett. Looks like solid low clouds tonorrow until afternoon as well. 87 with a dewpoint of 60 on the lake now and it is flat out gorgeous.

Nice... except on summer weekend. 85 and sunny now on Lake Sammamish and its packed here.

SEA is at +1.2 for the month but has only had 3 days below normal. Most of the month has been in the 0 to +2 range... riding the line of perfection.

Honestly feels like the stage is set for cool and wet September now.

12Z ECMWF is pretty hot in the 7-10 period... probably will not happen. We seem to be defaulting to perfect lately.

Actually it becomes more prominent when it dries out.

Another interesting aspect of the visible satellite image this morning is that the Willamette Valley looks sort of like eastern WA and OR. That is not clouds down there but a reflection of a dry landscape.

Already up to 75 here and the clouds have evaporated... dewpoint at 58 so it feels really warm out there.

But even with the low clouds... it already up to 70 at SEA at 9:30.

Good start for the MM5 NAM... the other models did not show a solid area of low clouds this morning.

Interested to see what happens tomorrow. MM5 NAM shows solid low clouds all day long... not the mid-level clouds we had today but actually low clouds. NAM MOS shows 80 and GFS MOS shows 81 and the cool bias ECMWF shows 83. None of those highs are possible with solid low clouds all day like the MM5 MAN shows.

No... afternoons were the same length a month ago. Evenings were a little brighter a little longer.

Corrected.

82 here today with lots of afternoon sun... the middle level deck has become semi-permanent just to our northwest.

The 00Z ECMWF also shows an odd area of low clouds around the Seattle area on Saturday afternoon with temps in the mid 80s. Strange.

I have to say that is pretty nasty.

A little disconnect on the NAM... the 00Z NAM MOS guidance shows 81 on Saturday while the MM5 NAM shows 60s with low clouds all day.

Dewpoint around 80 at Des Moines with thunderstorms. Too bad Phil is not going to the Midwest. Red Oak Iowa is reporting a dewpoint of 82 right now... same with Council Bluffs.

The rain-free streak lives on at SEA.

Up to 74 at SEA now... warmer than I was expecting. Lots of clearing now around the Seattle area.

Just remember that while Everett struggles to get to 70 that day... it will be pushing 90 in Portland.

Here is the ECMWF surface map for Monday. Looks like an absolutely perfect PNW summer day.

It looks like the PDO is crashing now... this is the 7-day change. A negative PDO and a ENSO neutral winter sounds like a good recipe to me. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

And in just a mere 26 weeks we are gaining something like 22 minutes of daylight in the last 10 days of January and the cherry blossoms will be getting ready to open!