TT-SEA

And after that deep trough on the 4th and 5th that plummets the high temps in Portland to the low 80s... we return to ridging and can finally get out of the freezer! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017062712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

Nope? It did not trend farther north and weaker for Monday? The entire July 1-4 period has trended much less troughy over the last few runs. Side note... the new 12Z ECMWF surface map for Tuesday and Wednesday (7/4 and 7/5) shows sunshine and highs in the 70s to low 80s.

You always seem to use strong language to describe background states that favor western troughing and very timid language to describe situations that favor ridging.

4th of July looks great on the 12Z ECMWF surface map... no low clouds to start the day and just some high clouds in the morning with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

12Z ECMWF trending farther north with our trough early next week. Here is the 12Z run from today... appears to be zipping by to the north on Monday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017062712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png Here was the 12Z run from yesterday... quite a change. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017062612/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

That should about wrap up our 6 weeks of cold, deep troughing. Hopefully we can turn it around and get some ridging for 6 weeks after that.

And a nice improvement on the 12Z GFS for the 4th... not really troughy at all on this run. 500mb heights are pretty high in fact. Looks really nice... maybe even above normal. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062712/gfs_z500a_namer_31.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062712/gfs_T2ma_nwus_31.png

12Z GFS is fairly warm for Thursday - Sunday.

I see that.

I understand we have to wait until 7/15 to see the June 1 - July 15 period... but we can certainly look at June as well. You make lots of forecasts. You said troughing would return "in a big way" after the first few days of June and last for "several weeks". There was also this forecast...

00Z ECMWF shows a quick moving trough on Monday into Tuesday and then back to a more ridgy pattern and warmer again. Certainly not a big pattern change to troughy and cool for any length of time.

00Z ECMWF is dry for the 4th of July... looks partly sunny and in the low 70s. And turning warmer the next day on that run.

Well then we should be due for some ridging after 7/15. The troughy period will likely end up above normal... looking forward to what a ridgy period brings.

Yes... 1993 had merits on a large scale. But it was almost the opposite result locally which is what most of us actually care about.

Not sure what troughy means then... because it did not translate to the surface where we live. This month is going to end up a little warmer and drier than normal for the region. And even warmer in the Seattle area... +2.1 for June does not feel like a troughy start to summer. Or maybe June is always troughy. Either way... its been a pretty nice month.

00Z ECMWF coming in now shows a gorgeous Canada Day on Saturday... mid-70s and mostly sunny all the way up the Island.

You do troll me. And I troll you. And so it goes.

It did happen in the middle of the month... there was a "hose" of moisture pointed at us for a couple days in November-like fashion. But overall... June featured more days above normal than below and WAY less days rainy days than June 1993.

I know... there was definitely merit to the analog on large scale. But it was sort of a meaningless analog locally. It is sort of strange that the worst two summers in the last 40 years (1983 and 1993) have been the most discussed analogs for two years in a row.

Exactly. That might be his biggest weakness. I heard about 1993 all spring... this summer is nothing like 1993 here.

Yeah... further north does not look as promising.

Looks fairly sunny... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062700/gfs_cfractot_nwus_33.png And basically normal temperatures... and the 12Z ECMWF showed the same thing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062700/gfs_T2ma_nwus_33.png Could be much worse. We are likely heading over to Crescent Bar anyways... should be 85-90 over there.

SEA is now at +2.1 for June... and the rest of the week looks a little above normal.

Weekend still looks nice on the 00Z GFS.

00Z GFS is flatter with the ridge by Saturday... trough might be making a rebound in the models.