TT-SEA

This is how I do my forecasting. Silly of course because I do not understand all of the global drivers. I just go by what typically happens here using 125 years of historical data. Which is nothing of course in the big picture.

Then we all agree. I think Phil's point was valid and interesting. I said that I had the same general sense. Thanks again for the great follow-up discussion!

My statement was directly related to Phil stating that the models are going to turn (and possibly without warning) to a cooler/troughier scenario. I said that was my general feeling as well. Primarily because it makes sense when you look at our history. Thanks for the lengthy subsequent discussion challenging me first on the fact that sometimes it does stay warm and dry through September and that its likely that there will be a cooler/wetter period ahead. Great insight! Feels like you are just looking for something to nitpick.

Thanks! Sorry for agreeing with Phil. You jumped in to challenge me by default.

I have noticed at times in the models that little events happening upstream can have a profound effect later on. Or maybe I am imagining it that way.

My point is that the models will likely start to trend troughier/cooler/wetter like Phil was predicting. I was just agreeing with him.

Sounds very complicated.

Right... my point is not about the statistical end result of June but rather that a cooler/wetter period is pretty likely. June of 2016 for example was warmer than normal but there was a 2-week stretch of cooler/wetter weather in the middle of it.

I think I read that before.

Just keep it going! Find an example in the last 12 years where I have not capitalized both letters of "OK". I have never typed it "Ok" in conversation in my life unless by accident. Does not look right to me.

Yeah... based on our history we will be due again for a cooler and wetter period in June for sure. Its almost never turned warm and dry in mid-May and just stayed that way.

No.

OK Jesse.

Not at all. You do.

Surprising. We have different opinions.

That is my general feeling as well. Glad we might sneak in a nice Memorial Day weekend at least.

That would be good too. I am cheering for dry... don't care as much how it gets there. That's just me. You said you are hoping for a wet and cold June. As most people are... I am sure.

Tragic to have a dry period after 3.5 months of almost daily rain and the second record breaking wet winter in row. We need a wet and cold month to offset this... makes sense.

12Z ECMWF is perfection through day 10 and still no signs of a big crash at 240 hours. Good enough for me right now.

Sarcastic Jesse is back! Must be turning nice.

FWIW... the 12Z GFS keeps us very warm for the next 17 days with the exception of Wednesday.

06z GFS is the first run of any model to knock down the ridge already on Memorial Day. The ECMWF and EPS showed nothing even close to that solution... but I assume the 06Z GFS will be the trail blazer on this one.

Snow does not feel right in April and May either. 17 inches in June is just crazy.

82/50 here... gorgeous day. It was 83 on Lake Sammamish this afternoon... kids actually went swimming which I thought was a little crazy. The lake was very busy and there was a wait to launch which is unusual. We figured out a way to keep my daughter safe since she insisted on being in the water.