TT-SEA

The ECMWF ensemble mean had not been showing any real crash... 00Z EPS just coming out shows a big crash and fast. Already here on Tuesday evening. So it finally caved to the operational run. I guess I was onto something when I said the EPS mean is only right when its troughier than the operational.

This would be a spectacular Memorial Day weekend... goldilocks weather. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017051912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

12Z ECMWF sliding east... GFS and GEM went the other way and were more robust. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017051912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

Yay. This might not happen guys!! (sarcasm)

00Z ECMWF shows low 90s in Portland on Monday and Tuesday. Nothing screams a June crash more than late May heat.

12Z ECMWF does not have much ensemble support either... but I am sensing that only matters when the operational is showing a ridge and the ensembles show a trough. The operational run and the control run both show sharp trough cutting off and lingering and I am pretty sure that is how it will end up. Here is the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean at day 8... clearly different than the operational run.

Don't look at the 00Z ECMWF.

Phil has been pretty consistent with his analogs this spring.

Very possible. Would probably result from a clipper cutting off into a ULL and parking itself over us.

I like what Jared is saying... but have learned not to go against Phil in the big picture. Even when I dislike what he is saying. He called the big picture very well last year starting in the early spring onward. And has been pretty much right so far this year. I am just hoping that we can get a better result with a 1983/1993 type pattern this summer. Or maybe end up closer to 1951 or 1995.

Seems to work that way usually.

The EPS mean is also less robust. But the 12Z ECMWF control run is quite robust and it actually cuts it back over the PNW where it sits for several days into Memorial Day weekend.

I have to give you major props regarding those years... they have continued to pop up over and over since you started tracking it almost 2 months ago. It will be interesting to see how June plays out. On the one hand... those years were WAY drier in the spring months here (Feb-May) and a wet June and July seemed more likely than this year which has been record setting wet in that period. Its seems unlikely that we continue with a very pattern all the way through July after coming off a record setting wet spring. That has not happened before. A very wet spring typically means a shift to dry and warm in June. But here we have a late May hot spell approaching and that was a hallmark of 1983... and 1993 had the same thing about 2 weeks earlier. Do we continue to follow analog years for such a long time? In the past, it seems like we have tracked one analog year for awhile and then completely break away to something different. Personally, I am also hoping that the volcanic influence played a role in those summers and the result might be different (drier and sunnier) here even its below normal. Time will tell. I cannot argue against those analogs now even though they represent two of the worst June/July periods ever here in terms of persistent rain.

Could happen.

Go here... and then scroll down on the left to monthly precip totals. I just cut and paste into Excel and then sum and sort. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa7473

Its just the WRCC site. Here is the list of top 15 wettest Feb-May periods at SEA: 2014 2017 1972 1961 1996 1950 1948 1991 2011 1945 1997 2012 1971 1957 1989

The unusual story this spring is really the rain and not the temperatures. The record setting persistence of the rain is also indicative of the pattern. SEA is just .35 away from breaking the record for the Feb-May period set in 2014. SEA has received 22.52 inches of rain since February 1st. An incredibly wet 3.5 month period. 1983 and 1993 were not very wet in that period. 1983 had 11.54 inches for the entire Feb-May period... and 1993 had 12.55 inches. The top 5: 2014 - 22.88 2017 - 22.52 1972 - 19.66 1961 - 18.99 1996 - 17.85

Good to know. I wonder how often Bend sees 39 with a rain/snow mix in May? Probably more often than accumulating snow.

What point? I am feeling great today. Its like you wake up to cold and rain and think this is going to be a fun day because Tim will be complaining and miserable. Then you search for anything to stoke the fire. I did not say anything combative at all today. And I am not even concerned with the weather today. Trump is in trouble and there is beautiful weather ahead. How does it get any better?

It will be with low dewpoints... and its never really hot near the water. You will love it.

Wow. You get so excited to hear me complain. I am feeling great today... looks like maybe 2 awesome weekends ahead. I think most people in the PNW are feeling particularly optimistic looking at the forecast on their phones. You are completely off base and combatively trying to find something. I said 'oh no' and that maybe it was not 'epic' for rain/snow mix at Bend in May. Off the rails!

Combative Jesse today! I have know idea about climo for Bend. I know Denver can see snow in May.

I don't want either. Why force me to pick from two disgusting warm season options? I want 70s and 80s with moderate dewpoints and sunshine in the summer. Luckily that is pretty typical here.

Maybe not so epic for Bend at 3,600 feet in elevation in mid-May.

So true. You lived it! One of my sons has been enjoying the late season skiing... so he is not too disappointed. He is going with friends to Bachelor on Memorial Day weekend.