TT-SEA

Offshore flow and dry air mass might ruin your plans here. The 00Z ECMWF showed 50s for the lowlands and maybe even low 60s in the foothills early next week... and its far superior to the WRF with inversions. I know... the models always screw this up and its always foggy and cold in this situation. But that is not always the case. Sometimes that happens... sometimes it does not. A dry air mass and lack of rain this upcoming week will work against a foggy inversion. Here is early next week from the 00Z ECMWF... Remember that we are also going to be 6 weeks out from the winter solstice. This would be much more likely to end up in a foggy inversion a month ago.

The 12Z Canadian is much better at 240 hours. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012112/gem_T850a_us_41.png

Technology is awesome. If you are in the right field... you can live almost anywhere.

The 12Z GFS is crazy dry for mid-winter. Not seeing any cold at 10 days out... maybe some fake cold in the usual spots. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012112/gfs_T850a_us_41.png

The man is an endless SNL skit...

A little offshore flow and downslope warming it appears.

State of the snow this morning... pretty warm out there as well at 43 degrees to start the day.

Totally different. Detroit versus space colonies... Nebraska versus Kabuska. Come on.

Trump is a walking SNL skit. Literally.

Cheering for the Falcons... make the Seahawks loss look better and I like to see Aaron Rodgers lose.

You absolutely create your own reality. And he has not done anything yet. This bears posting again... its a great assessment of Trump. The more he repeats things the more you believe it. Its mindless. Trump is very, very smart. Trump for 50 years has learned how to use people’s brains against them. That’s what master salesmen do. There’s a certain set of things they do. The first is repeat. Advertisers know this. You turn on your TV, and the same ad comes on over and over and over. The effect on the brain of repetition is that when you hear something it’s understood through the neural circuitry in your brain; it has to become activated. The more it’s repeated, the more that circuitry is activated, and every time it’s activated the synaptic connections become stronger. What that means when they become stronger is two things happen. One, they’re more likely to fire — it’s easier to get those ideas out there if they’re firing — and two, if you hear them often enough they become part of what’s fixed in your brain. They become part of what you naturally understand, and you can only understand what your brain allows you to understand. Repetition is a way of changing people’s brains. What Trump was doing all through the nomination campaign was that every day he managed to get on TV, and he would repeat different things that activated the same moral framework, and it really worked. In addition you have particular frames that were repeated: “Crooked Hillary,” “crooked Hillary,” “crooked Hillary,” over and over. There wasn’t anything Hillary did that was crooked. But he kept saying it until people believed it. And they believed it because it was heard enough times to strengthen the neural circuitry in their brains. It wasn’t just stupidity. It’s simply the way brains work. Another thing he used was grammar, as in “radical Islamic terrorism.” What does “radical” mean? Radical means not part of what is normal and healthy and so on, but something on the fringe, number one. Two, terrorists – people who are out to get you, right? If you modify terrorists, there are two ways in which you can do it. There are two forms of applying adjectives to nouns, and the classic example is “the industrious Japanese,” which assumes either that all Japanese are industrious, or that there are some and I’m picking out those. But the idea that they’re all industrious is activated. In this case, the idea that all people who are Islamic are terrorists is activated. And they’re radical. If you say that, it’s not like you’re picking out the tiny proportion who happened to be terrorists and radical. You’re saying it about everybody. That’s part of grammar. He is using grammar to get his point across, to get his worldview across, and then criticizing Clinton and Obama for not doing it, as if not saying it is not recognizing the threat.

You create your own reality.

She is quite masculine.

Good take on the day... Donald Trump's inaugural festivities left a lot to be desired. Instead of the record-breaking crowds he predicted, there were wide swaths of the Mall in Washington, D.C. that were empty. Along with the procession of dignitaries and political leaders, there was split-screen coverage of protesters, representing the majority of Americans who did not vote for Trump. The new president himself seemed to scowl through many of the activities. And it rained. As Trump himself might have described this inaugural, it was "sad." It is unfair, though, to blame Trump for the poor turnout and gloomy skies. Yet at his first moment in the national spotlight as President, Trump proved a huge disappointment. He gave a speech that was dark, pessimistic, and at times ultranationalistic. "Washington flourished while the people did not... the establishment protected itself," he declared angrily, before the assembled members of the Washington establishment.

The world according to Jim. This feels like what you do with the weather. Its more about your agenda than anything. Nonetheless.. the pendulum swings back and forth in politics. Next the democrats will back in control.

1951

Northwestern University Law Professor Steven Calabresi served in two Republican administrations, was an adviser to Attorney General Edwin Meese under Ronald Reagan and wrote speeches for Vice President Dan Quayle. He is co-founder and board chairman of the conservative Federalist Society. So it raised a few eyebrows when Calabresi told a law school audience in San Francisco that when it comes to Donald Trump, “impeachment needs to be on the table.” Even though both houses of Congress will be controlled by his fellow Republicans, Trump, a party outsider, will be “on a short leash. There could be a spectacular end,” Calabresi said in a recent panel at the annual meeting of the Association of American Law Schools.

My brother-in-law has been asking me for detailed forecasts because they cannot get baseball try-outs in for the kids down there. I said just do it in the rain... they play the entire season in the rain up here.

100% this.

Sure has been wet in CA... even SoCal.

Years of context Mattias.

Clever. Sadly they might have access to much more than that after tomorrow.

I had to throw it in there. I know I am going to be attacked for not thinking of the people who want it cold and dark all summer so they can hike every single day for months and months! Obviously I am exaggerating for effect here... not to be taken completely seriously.

It does not have to be 55 and drizzling in Portland for you to enjoy hiking at 6,000 feet. I realize that some hikes are only accessible in the summer... but you mock more traditional summer activities at every chance.

Long stretches of cloudy, drizzly, cold weather in the warm season (May - Sept) gets me down. Primarily because it does not feel like the warm season and prevents warm season activities. We can hike year-round so I don't count that as just a summer activity. I really don't care care any longer what happens between October - March. Expectations are very low. Snow and cold are always a bonus. Give me some periods of offshore flow between the rainy periods and all is good here.