TT-SEA

Brace yourself. And if you are getting depressed about sunshine and 70s in late September and October then the weather is not your biggest problem.

And this is just lovely... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_TPnXv.png

Comparing to the 12Z run yesterday... the weekend system is much weaker. Comparing to the 00Z run... its a little stronger but Sunday is still sunny and in the low 70s which is the same as the 00Z run. Saturday is also into the 80s in Portland and in the upper 70s in Seattle.

I am loving the 12Z ECMWF. Just skims us with a system next Sunday and then quickly builds in a strong ridge. The 8-10 day period looks very warm. Before that... Thursday - Saturday look really nice. Saturday is quite warm as well.

Looks negative to me on the SSTA maps.

Still a clear upward trend... but the ECMWF ensemble mean definitely shows more a trough for next weekend then previous runs. Way different than the 00Z GFS in that time period. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Tuesday and Wednesday look like pretty solid marine layer days for some cool anomalies.

I hated that when we moved in here... always losing power. I said it before...but the windstorm in 2006 was a major blessing in disguise. Completely rebuilt system and underground for us all the way to the main area in North Bend and Safeway. We never lose power for anything now (only exception being the ice storm in 2012).

00Z GFS is a nice run. Randy - don't put away the water toys yet.

00Z GFS says that 9/11 is in fact warm as usual. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_189_500_vort_ht.gif

Good information again... more complicated to navigate than I thought. Just an amazing amount of data to sort though!

OK... thanks. The link you sent shows 850mb temp anomalies either normal or above normal for the PNW pretty much through the entire run after about 9/11.

What am I missing? Here is 9/25 through 10/3 for example from the latest ECMWF weeklies.

That probably means warm out here. (I updated my post after seeing the CFS is exactly the same as the ECMWF weeklies with nothing but warm anomalies out west)

FWIW... the most recent ECMWF weeklies are warm starting later next week until the end of the run in the middle of October. The latest CFS run looks exactly the same. Nothing but warm anomalies out west past the middle of October (to the end of the run) Honestly... I sense some unhappy cold anomaly fans coming up here through most of October. Just a feeling. Nature will probably deliver 45 days of warmth to offset 10 days of a little cool weather. That is not sarcasm or meant to be mean-spirited.

Here is the afternoon of 9/12 on the 18Z GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_222_500_vort_ht.gif The EPS ensemble mean does not really show much of a trough next weekend or early the follow week either.

No... its was a solid prediction.

Alabama or USC... who do we hate more?

Good call.

Ensemble mean heights around 582DM next weekend... sounds like a nice weekend regardless. And the ridge builds strongly in the 10-15 day period.

Enjoy!

Clear upward trend on 18Z GFS ensembles. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

18Z GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean are even nicer. However... you are only allowed to like one type of weather. Cheering for active weather and some rain and then warmer weather and sunshine is not allowed.

18Z GFS looking nice.

Phil... maybe some fall-ish weather for you next weekend! At least much less humid. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_198_500_vort_ht.gif Edit... I see the NE flow around the storm offshore has your dewpoint down to 57 right now.