TT-SEA

Good to know!

I do like to see the ensemble mean in terms of absolute heights. For me... its a better gauge of the overall pattern rather than looking at anomalies. I can see both being valuable.

Classic view of a convergence zone over Seattle!

So do I actually. That is why I also love the hot weather here. We always know the storms will come. Not true in places like SoCal. Days like today are very enjoyable. Active with sun and downpours and some wind.

Got it now... this is what I want to look at.

Can you link me Phil to the right spot. It said EPS on the link I used.

Ahhhhh. I am learning.

Reporting what it shows. Please God no ridge!! No more above normal weather... please God!!

Had to host images... see above.

So?

Omega block in the 11-15 day period...

Not at all from me. I absolutely love getting an active pattern like this after a hot, dry period.

Sun and a few downpours here this afternoon. The yard looks happier already.

Just wondering. I know its horrible to mention it.

Is it so hard to get through the break for 2-3 months a year from active, stormy weather? Some people act as if it was never going to return... but it always does and usually right about now. We never have to worry about that. Are those 8-10 weeks so terrible? Without sun... you would not appreciate the storms. Without the storms... you would not appreciate the sun.

ECMWF ensemble mean is quite ridgy in the 8-15 day period. Maybe cool ridgy at times with northerly flow. No crash. Looks like an Omega block towards the end with a huge trough over the Bering Sea and another massive trough over central and eastern Canada.

Indeed.

It never does take much reshuffling... just does not happen too often. This sounds like a wizard comment.

Actively sunning right now in Seattle... here too!

Sort of like this? This would probably send the coldest air to the east of us. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-aEx9fc.png

Very true.

Still a mistake. There is no way the low was 49. Looking at the frequently updated view... it was consistently in the upper 50s and low 60s the entire night on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

GFS ensembles agree on the warm up starting right around the 10th... http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Except it did not happen. The low was only 58.

Looks like a solid band of rain (convection?) moving in this morning with the main ULL. HRRR shows it moving through before noon and then drier with some sun behind it.