TT-SEA

This weekend looked like it was going to feature a huge crash last weekend.

SEA is going above normal today for August... took 3 days to wipe out the cold anomalies for the first third of the month.

This.

18Z GFS is very nice. Looks like some great weather ahead.

Indeed. Our usual strong offshore gradients and east wind we have all summer will be missing.

12Z ECMWF is perfect... no extreme heat. Just pleasant with good mixing and changing of air masses.

Nor will you see that with the upcoming warm spell. July is over dummy. And there is probably nothing to interesting coming up.

I must be thinking that Ninos are better at producing early arctic intrusions then.

Well... a strong Nino pulled off a cool September last year. I certainly liked that month.

Sure would like to avoid extreme heat next week. Moderate warmth is much more sustainable.

All the time. I always post. Unlike you. And it probably won't happen until I am excited to see below normal weather in mid-October. Nina falls usually get off to a slow start. The opposite of Ninos.

July is over dummy. Already said it's been cool. That will be erased in the monthly departures soon.

06Z GFS was pretty warm for later next week like the 00Z ECMWF. Although the 06Z GFS ensemble members look more like the ECMWF ensemble mean.

I have not said much of anything about August. July is over. That was the month we got caught up in tracking so closely. Did not expect that to happen by saying that the first part of the month would be cool and the last part would be warm locally.

You to post details like this more often. You are very knowledgeable and seemingly have no agenda on either side. Really appreciated.

Might be an interesting evening here. Gorgeous afternoon but its about to turn turbulent.

Those maps work so amazingly well... almost every marine layer day is shown on there ahead of time. There are no true marine layer days on the 12Z ECMWF. No offshore flow either... so there is almost always some marine influence in the summer. Even on very warm days. WRF fails to see half the marine layer days... ECMWF surface maps almost never miss.

There are absolutely no marine layer days on the ECMWF detailed surface maps through next Wednesday (as far out as it goes). Sunny and warm every day. And it showed the last 4-5 marine layer days (Sat - Tues and part of Wednesday) perfectly last week.

Some signs of another ULL maybe around day 10 on the GFS and Canadian.

At least we can make an effort.

DEAL!

Incorrect. Regime change came early. I switched to looking locally based on new set of analogs. Said it many times. I probably made the mistake early on of thinking local results would be more representative of the entire region. Phil was looking at the big picture and I was just looking at the expected results locally and both ended up correct. We should be giving credit to each other instead of arguing about forecasting for different things.

00Z ECMWF is solid ridgy the entire run. The 06Z GFS is not as much.

I am just happy to see a relatively pleasant pattern through the entire run as opposed to the deep troughing that some runs showed recently. Was not even thinking about extreme heat.

Sure. Its been a cool 4 days as a result of the ULL. No argument. We will see how the rest of the month plays out.