TT-SEA

Brennan said it looked boring and mocked their forecast. What do you want them to show??? It will be sunny and in the 30s in Seattle.

Probably pretty close. 5 sunny days in a row that start out chilly and end up in the 30s will not be very memorable. More memorable maybe for all the sunshine in early February. The only factor that could be memorable is the transition event which I am guess will be interesting for a few hours and then washed away rather quickly in some heavy rain. Looks like we missed the chance to have a really great event from the start (e.g. 1989).

Thanks Rob! Did I mention how much I like your posts since you came back? Yes... I did that yesterday. Keep up the good work and don't let my ribbing on your wording bother you. If this thing was going to dump a foot of snow at the onset... it would actually be insane.

Same with my kids.

Screw you... I am walking around on my own while my daughter naps in the cart I am pushing.

Don't be so sensitive. I told my in-laws this morning that their arctic air is coming our way... told them it would in the 20s and they laughed. Who cares? I would not want their winter. I like that 20 is brutal.

I was being a sm#rtass. I know.

I was commenting on the word brutal to describe sunny and 25-30. Although in the gorge it will be BRUTAL. Not for most though.

No... in Safeway walking around with the cart. Did not realize there was no reception. Walked by the door and it was on there 4 times.

Loved this winter... will love this week. Just hoping for some snow going in... thats all.

Now I am screwed. Bad reception and it posted 4 times when I got a signal! I can't delete them. Help!

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

12Z ECMWF still good through Friday... warming Saturday... gone Sunday. Still time for it to slow down.

Hood Canal... yes. I have seen many the other way for Seattle. Lets hope its all delayed.

Hopefully the Canadian is onto something... then we don't have to worry about the erosion of cold air for awhile longer!

If we have broad SW flow like the GFS has shown... then it will be a fast transition for us in the Seattle area. You always bring up the models issue with scouring cold air... but that happens with strong offshore flow. With SW flow... we scour out in a hurry. I have seen that more times than the other way. But somehow every transition event is based on situations like 2008. Its a fallacy.

I won't be buried in snow until a transition event... which is not something that excites me. And I am fine with sunny and cold... but when comparing to events like 1989 this sort of sucks. I think its worth noting that we are mitigating (wasting) the potential here during the heart of the cold air with a bare ground almost everywhere. The difference it has on the tangible effect this week will be HUGE. What are the odds that this would happen twice in one winter??

Yes... there is a small chance. But we will not be going into this cold snap with snow cover... such as in 1989 which made a huge difference. Even if there was a dusting it would promptly melt in 40-degree sunshine on Monday. A total shame to waste the second arctic outbreak of the winter with absolutely nothing on the ground.

Because there was some chance of snow going in.

Here is the total snow through 72 hours going into the cold air mass per the 12Z WRF: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/msnow72.84.0000.gif Nada. GFS MOS has SEA at 40/27 on Monday with sunshine. That will seem like nothing but a nice day to the vast majority of people.

Yep.

12Z Canadian shows the undercut happening WAY south... like through California. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg