TT-SEA

I just reported what the 00Z NAM MOS showed. Was not selling anything.

PDX better gear up for some snow tomorrow! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_024_precip_p03.gif

Rough. I said 30-35 for the parade about 20 times on here. It was 32 in downtown Seattle today. Can't twist that.

00Z GFS is even way north of the 12Z GFS!

This is so confusing. NAM does SUCK with frontogenesis though.

Actually... the NAM shows the temperatures moderating after tomorrow. NAM MOS which has been running cold has SEA at 30 tomorrow... then 36 on Friday... and then all the way up to 41 on Saturday. The cold is peaking now. The dewpoints stay low... in the 20s... but the air temperature starts to moderate.

Exactly what the models are showing... no warm air push and therefore no precipitation over the weekend.

I doubt it Jim. They will be just fine.

Along Lake Washington Blvd as well... and in downtown Bellevue.

They are all over Bellevue/Kirkland as well.

So it appears.

Wow... this is what Sunday looks like now??? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

Probably. These are in Tukwila... them seem to do great around there. They are all over the place. The Harley dealership on Lind has about 200 of them.

Yeah... the good news is that there is no warm push now either.

My office has palm trees across street... many of them. And they are doing great.

I did not ever say that. Ever. I said 30-35 for today on many occasions for the parade. It was 32 at BFI. You make this stuff up. My official forecast in the contest was based entirely on the GFS MOS extended run from this past weekend. No thought other than copying numbers. The GFS MOS turned colder after the contest closed.

If the ECMWF shows it... it will happen. Unfortunately... the weekend now looks almost totally dry.

It is going to snow in Seattle tomorrow night?? ECMWF says it will.

BFI. Nearest station to the parade for which I was forecasting in the first place.

Minneapolis is at -1 right now. 31 or 32 would feel exactly as I described. They had 31 nights with below zero lows between 12/1 and 1/31. We are finally getting in on the action on the back side.

It was 32 in Seattle. My 30-35 forecast was CRAZY warm. So sorry.

All relative Andrew... all relative. I have an aunt from Wisconsin visiting my mom in Bellingham and she says its really nice. Everyone living here will think upper 20s and low 30s feels like the arctic circle. But to most places at our latitude that is called early spring weather. NOT TO TAKE AWAY FROM WHAT IS AN HISTORICAL COLD EVENT FOR THIS REGION. It is still that for sure...and about to become very snowy to the south which will make it very memorable.

Just used the long range GFS MOS from last weekend. Did not think about any of it... just copied the numbers. Then the GFS MOS turned colder after the contest entry was closed. Oh well. It now has SEA at 32 the next 2 days.

Just looked at the detailed ECMWF. Now Seattle is in the action for Thursday night... and then its totally dry all weekend. Crazy changes from run to run. Probably covered earlier... have not read all the posts today.

I don't think 3 or 4 degrees either way is 'ridiculous'. I guess if you have your undies wrapped around a pole about this event then maybe. Just gorgeous weather no matter how you slice it.