TT-SEA

No... in Safeway walking around with the cart. Did not realize there was no reception. Walked by the door and it was on there 4 times.

Loved this winter... will love this week. Just hoping for some snow going in... thats all.

Now I am screwed. Bad reception and it posted 4 times when I got a signal! I can't delete them. Help!

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

You have no frame of reference... that is shed the jacket weather at home. Just could not resist with the term 'brutal'.

12Z ECMWF still good through Friday... warming Saturday... gone Sunday. Still time for it to slow down.

Hood Canal... yes. I have seen many the other way for Seattle. Lets hope its all delayed.

Hopefully the Canadian is onto something... then we don't have to worry about the erosion of cold air for awhile longer!

If we have broad SW flow like the GFS has shown... then it will be a fast transition for us in the Seattle area. You always bring up the models issue with scouring cold air... but that happens with strong offshore flow. With SW flow... we scour out in a hurry. I have seen that more times than the other way. But somehow every transition event is based on situations like 2008. Its a fallacy.

I won't be buried in snow until a transition event... which is not something that excites me. And I am fine with sunny and cold... but when comparing to events like 1989 this sort of sucks. I think its worth noting that we are mitigating (wasting) the potential here during the heart of the cold air with a bare ground almost everywhere. The difference it has on the tangible effect this week will be HUGE. What are the odds that this would happen twice in one winter??

Yes... there is a small chance. But we will not be going into this cold snap with snow cover... such as in 1989 which made a huge difference. Even if there was a dusting it would promptly melt in 40-degree sunshine on Monday. A total shame to waste the second arctic outbreak of the winter with absolutely nothing on the ground.

Because there was some chance of snow going in.

Here is the total snow through 72 hours going into the cold air mass per the 12Z WRF: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/msnow72.84.0000.gif Nada. GFS MOS has SEA at 40/27 on Monday with sunshine. That will seem like nothing but a nice day to the vast majority of people.

Yep.

12Z Canadian shows the undercut happening WAY south... like through California. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Those measurements are so strange. 7.99 inches of snow on the ground?? How did you get that nice monthly view?? All I can get there are CSV and EXCEL files in an ugly format.

Not sure about down there... but there was a foot of snow on the ground up here. That is what makes all the difference in the world with temperatures.

Unfortunately... the rest is going to be pretty boring for most people. I don't honestly care that much about -14C or -18C or whatever if its sunny and the ground is bare. It looks fairly pleasant (i.e. dry and sunny) with no hassles during the cold event. The next exciting thing is the transition event.

Yes... almost certain this event has to favor your area. Seattle is likely going into this snowless and will probably come out like it did in December. Fast and messy.

Just following up on what we thought was an incredible snow event for the lowlands next weekend... the 00Z WRF has the transition happening already by Saturday morning and the totals are not that crazy. http://s29.postimg.org/h3dzf1ao7/snow1.png Already scouring the cold air by 4 a.m. on Saturday: http://s27.postimg.org/djb1sdt83/snow2.png The flow is SW... not offshore... and that kills the snow chances quickly. ECMWF showed this as well.

Won't happen... you fell for this in December as well. Bare ground and February sunshine to boot. (Side note.... my family in MN an WI would literally declare spring if they could sustain a temperature in the 20s)

Who knows how this will settle out... all I am saying is that the 00Z ECMWF is still dry across the region on Saturday morning and way too warm for snow by Sunday with strong SW flow. It would be a quick event if that verifies.

Yeah... angle is everything. People remember events like 2008 and apply it to every case. But it does not work that way. Many times I have seen SEA scour out without putting up any fight at all.