Prairiedog

Actually he didn't nail it. It looked like he was going to nail it but there was more snow and certainly more ice than he predicted and it didn't warm up nearly as quickly as he thought.

What you have failed to understand that in this region even when ALL the models are in agreement this close I've watched them fail miserably even within two days. One would think that it's a done deal. It doesn't work that way HERE however. Hoping they do work out but I'm tempering my enthusiasm until we are a whole lot closer. It's a painful lesson you will learn and actually already have learned (or should have learned).

Snow and cold never came easy for the Willamette Valley, albeit maybe a little more common. If you look at the ave snowfall charts going back to 1900 Portland never averaged much, what 5" annually maybe? Now it's closer to 2 I think. Temps never were much colder either although 1 degree here can mean everything in marginal snowfall events. People always say,Wow, we used to ALWAYS have cold and snow. Um, no we didn't. Our childhood memories of a snow event here and there makes it seem like it happened every year. It didn't. I think what I remember (having lived here all my life) is that perhaps events lasted a little longer. It wasn't always just a 12 hr or 24 hr event. And I'm not even sure my memories of that are accurate. It has NEVER been easy to get arctic air and snow down here. It sure can happen but it's not common or easy. That's MHO anyway. So when people here are so convinced we're gonna see a foot of snow and prolonged cold in the 10 day I chuckle. It's fun to talk about but its hyperbole. We all want it and we all hope for it but it's not in our climo DNA. For those epic events the long range show unless it's inside 2-3 days, I hold my enthusiasm (not easy to do) because 9 times out of 10 I'm left disappointed.

I don't think he grew up here. You have to know the DNA of this particular climate. Love the enthusiasm too but way too much wishcasting.

Love Sun Mountain Lodge! Here's downtown Wintrhop. 20f and all powder.

Not realistic at all.

Getting some sleet now after a beautiful snowfall albeit not a lot of accum. Maybe 1/4". Too much hype by a few on this forum of the 3-5" and even the 2-4" never seemed realistic for most areas after models came out yesterday. We all get excited, but hopefully with the next go around next week, we try to not hyperbolize too much. This is the PNW. This is the Portland area and north valley. It's what usually happens at best unless it's slapping us in the face. Models as I saw them never supported that much snow. Mark did a good job with this. He understands the micro climates here and he understands what climo is. He's still king IMHO. Not the Euro. Not the GFS. Not the NAM. They're all useful but they don't live here.

Being a retired science teacher for almost 40 years, we used "blind faith" in many of our testings of hypotheses and experiments. Didn't you know science was based on blind faith. LOL. Oh and I use it with the Seattle Mariners too. It's a very reassuring thing.

Not gonna happen. Not even close. Maybe out towards Forest Grove, McMinniville. Not in the Metro area.

Then we should cut back on the hyperbole.

That's what I said earlier. He was a student under Mark for some time at KPTV. He's done a pretty good job even though I hate to hear the truth.

I've saying to you for a couple days now, it's overdone. As much as I want it to happen, I don't think we will see anything near what you're "hoping" for. I love your enthusiasm but the trend has been moving against the extended cold into Friday for MOST of the area and that's what matters. Lets see what happens over the next 6-8 hrs. Hope I'm wrong. Don't think I am. Timing is all wrong for one thing. Don't see any mid level cold air support. Low has been weakening too much initially. Daytime temps in the Columbia pool not cold enough by the time it gets here during the day. Sucks!

Snow is like sex, you don't know how deep it will go or how long it will last. Best to open the presents while you have them.

But if Sometimes Dylan in Juneau is surviving an overriding event with more snow and cold to follow then maybe we can too. Maybe this is the winter of exceptions. If we can keep the snow going through 10pm Thurs. I will consider that a victory. I'm between Oregon City and Estacada and protected somewhat from the east winds, not like DJ. there's always a warm nose of air in the mid levels that creep up the western flanks of the Cascade foothills and then I'm cooked. Maybe it won't happen this time. It's the year of exceptions! Make Winter Great Again.

2011 was amazing. Had two mornings of 8f and several between 14-18f. Several days with highs in the low to mid 20's. My creek mostly froze over (Clear Creek) and had about 5" of powder on the ground. I'll take that any day.

All about the mid level temps. As soon as temps rise above 32f in that 2-4,000ft range the snow is done. Sleet, ZR. As the wedge of cold air thins out over the Metro area its done (as far as the snow part goes). But if the air coming down the Gorge is deep enough we're good but it never ends well. So what we hope for is for a prolonged event of snow (4 hrs, 8hrs, ?) As long as the low is weaker and heading south we have a chance. There's no upper level cold air support to reinforce the mid levels of the atmosphere for this event. Once the wedge of cold air is thinned out its over. So, its all about duration. What can we hope for?

Every Snowflake Matters

NWS thinks PDX will hold onto the cold till around Thurs evening sometime. 1-4" possible with some ice over the top before it moderates. Typically they underestimate how long it takes to thaw. Obviously quicker thawing south of PDX but the general PDX area and east takes some time. Almost always a warm nose of air works its way up the west flanks of the Cascades and east side of the Valley and once that happens the fun is about over. Having lived here all my life, when I see a weakening low track south of the Columbia R. it bodes well. Warm up is slower albeit not as much snow but it won't melt off right away. Too many pieces yet to be determined in how they line up but I like what appears to be taking shape. WSW or WSA should be coming soon. I can't imagine a WSW not being issued as we get closer.

Tim, could you ask your son what his exposure time was? Like to know what his settings were. Great pic!

Actually good that the roses get cold. They harden off for winter. If they don't they will push new growth and then with a good cold snap all the new growth gets burnt off. Time to go dormant. It's been great growing season!

It's been a long time indeed. And way too far and few in between. That was a marvelous day and it stayed around for almost a week.

I think it was '96 that a convergence zone set up over the general Portland area. It was a Sunday morning with light rain and about 42f. By noon it switched to snow and the temp dropped all day. Blowing, drifting snow most of the day winds wipping around 25-30mph. Ended up at 18f when the snow stopped and 6" of powder on the ground in Oregon City. I was teaching and we missed about a week of school. Stars came out that night and I had a low of 14f. It was magnificent! Closest to a nor'easter I've seen here.

Me too. Went from 36f overnight to 34f and hung there till about 11am when the rain turned over to snow. Sitting at 32f since. Off Springwater near Fischers Mill/Redland area.

"good" pattern setting up, "close". Big change from they hyperbole that its a certainty, epic, arctic outbreak of the ages, gonna happen talk. As excited and as much as we "wish" and "want" it to happen, lets get it inside of 5-6 days then we can get excited. Even within that time frame it's not a guarantee. I'm sure as heck hoping it will happen. But lets stay the course and wait and see. It's the PNW and climo is NOT our friend. hope it happens but too early to call it yet.