richard mann

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=86740

- With having been moving and spreading south since the 4th of Oct., … .. Main cold air mass looked at more broadly, should begin to regress back daily, steadily more northward from this point forward through to the end of October. — If certainly also in line with the more basic advance of fall, with this general regression of cold, look for main cold stores north to consolidate increasingly better through the higher latitudes. Just where they do, important to colder air's next general expansion more south. .. During this same general period, and with continuing to do so begun on the 13th, where looked at more longitudinally, main cold air should continue its current slower movement more eastward through the 23rd or 24th of Oct., with beginning to move more assertively east for a shorter period of days, from then through the 27th, and with slowing gradually but steadily from that point forward. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=85923

- Having begun to do so yesterday on the 4th, main colder air mass looked at more broadly—across the board from east to west, fuller Northern hemispheric scope—should continue to move and spread daily, steadily and progressively more southward, through the 18th of October. This while during this same general period main colder air being caused to move more longitudinally, more assertively east through the 12th, before then from the 13th of Oct. forward main cold being caused to slow its pace east daily for several days, even through until the 22nd or so. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

.. Which would suggest some amount of ridging then, Right. ? With what I've projected, that ridging could be chopped down. — The over-all force of movement of colder air mass is decreasing at this point, so this potential is perhaps somewhat questionable. But still certainly there I feel where looking at what I have more generally more both latitudinally and longitudinally. Essentially, new and fresh cold movement out of the north, beginning on the 4th, together with a gradually more stepped up movement and pace of colder air more eastward at about the same time.

.. O.k. (Not really what I'd been referring to more.) Related more specifically to what either had been being shown then or is being more currently, .. I'm expecting a main shake up in what the models come up with on the 4th or so, when per my estimation (projection.) main cold starts to expand south again. @

.. More actual "verb" age used here with these comments of yours at least. Even those just above. (Fewer adjectives. ?)

.. You tell'm "Tony".

North, westhern Canada, with emphasis. If I may here bbk. .. — Set against last year with all (most.) of the main cold stores having been focused way east of the Rockies North.

.. This, of course [if] still ultimately saying very little about why the low (more specific.) that you've referred to (more abstractly.) would set up where it might. Or, as I've pointed to, how any of this certainly fairly general sketching might in turn impact the PNW. When the sun is overhead, it's generally much warmer than at midnight. Again, the better question, where considering the one that you've asked pointed to here above, being "why" it does, or might, if it does.(?) Looked at along with, "what" difference, any of this would make to the PNW. (?)

Colder by the end of the first week of Oct., my best estimate.

.. Right now (At this point.), I've got main colder air regressing (retracting.) northward through Oct. 3rd. @ — The humidity that you've pointed to certainly likely connected to the present Nino state. And then with this, looked at together with what I've said about colder air's general direction (distributional leaning) at this point, more latitudinally, .. first, main moisture (inclusive of humidity.) being allowed greater general access north, and then second, .. main cold starting to expand (move and spread.) daily, progressively more, from the 4th of Oct. forward.

- Still fairly warm here through early afternoon. Although with a fairly quite cool down through later afternoon into earlier even with the moon's movement toward rise. And then more so into the main evening, as things moved toward and then after sunset. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KCAPARAD2

.. The one better, is why (?) .. it does, where it might. Otherwise, Phil. .. Have at it. With what then .. ? — Being a general result, general or even shifting conditions wise. ? .. For the PNW, or even the West looked at more generally, would you say. .. ?

There should be room for the idea (the snow one.) I'm thinking, this year.

Keep up Tim.

My view, .. Even if things "cool down" a bit main Nino focused warmth (Sea-surface, main moisture generation more strong.) more south, with the cold potential that I'm seeing more from / out of the north, the broader winter season could be a good one, right through to March.

Sensible, even sensical. If sadly. Although certainly begs the question, what would you like to see, rather. ?

.. Could be a decent "Snow" season ahead, I'm thinking.

How 'bout we try this tack Tim. ... "Hate it."

.. I think its more like "drop" the "rating" of whatever conditions. .. Who really needs to know how Tim rates whatever conditions. ? Current or foreseen. — I say, "No one." And that the idea is just plain "off putting". (Irrespective, of whether he can perhaps point to the idea that some, other people might do the same, to some / whatever, extent, or not. Still sucks.) .. Will it stop. ? .. Don't make me laugh. (But if it did, I'd like it.) .. And, I "second" all of the things that you've brought up, more positive that Tim posts. ... Very entertaining, along with as you've suggested, even timely where considering the potential void left at times. (Just don't "like", the "pooh poohing", or otherwise, cheering on, even put downs of others impressions other wise, where considering different conditions ...)

.. Along with myself that is then, right Tim. ? .. And why do you think "we" do that Tim. ? (Do you suppose.) @ — This not forgetting the idea—that you've skimmed over apparently, and if conveniently—the degree to which different people suggest their appreciation (?) where pointed to, of (or in your case often with even beckoning on.) whatever more specific (or general.) kind of conditions. .. And with this that you've said looked at more in total here above, and previous, all you're doing is generalizing toward making what you do appear a more typical (normal.) than it is. (Super-market checkout line, promotion, of the like of kind of conditions that "you'd" like to see most: whenever, and wherever your are at whatever time more in particular.)

Point to what I do, Tim. Face it, you "reduce" the general discussion here, to what you "like", where and when ever possible. Some post to this thread, saying things like "nice" day, or whatever more simple. With you, it's a freakin' contest. With "Olympic" scoring potential.

All in line with what you "like" more generally, of course (Kind of goes without say at this point.) hmmn, Tim. ? .. Your "opinion" and "grading" of whatever conditions - present or future projected, being of the foremost importance of course where considering any discussion of the weather the you may be interested in participation in. .. Here's what I say about what you "like", .... With your dream scenario having pretty much turned out to have played out where looking back for the past what, 6 or 8 months (?), while relative to it, certainly quite a few subregions outside of your special little corner of the world, have faired quite a bit less fortunate, ... I hope you get "slush" and "dank" for the next at very least same number of months.

I'll settle for a well above average level and amount of precip. through earlier and mid winter where I am here more south. ...