bishbish777
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Everything posted by bishbish777
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Any minute now we're gonna hear about UKMET verification scores being off the charts...
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In ICON we believe!!
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Some of the models are still pretty moist for tomorrow's system, which would theoretically bode well for snow in the lowlands. The UKMET, for example, has .6" of QPF in the Seattle area. And yet, almost none of that is considered "snow" by the model. Part of it is surface temps slightly above freezing. But I was also looking at the WRF-GFS, and there is a distinct warm-nose up the valley. I haven't seem temps discussed much regarding tomorrow's system, but some of the models with higher QPF are not outputting snow, and I wonder if temps are more marginal than we would assume with the current airmass.
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https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ I'm not too familiar with it, so others can chime in for sure. My understanding is that, like the HRRR, its a hourly-run model for short-term forecasting. It's lower res than the HRRR, but I believe the RAP is almost like a "parent" model to the HRRR. It might feed some boundary conditions that the HRRR runs off of, I'm not too sure. I like to check it out just to see trends between its runs.