Phil

Here she comes.  

As we get later into spring into summer, the more substantial troughing will occur when MJO/amalgamated tropical forcings propagate through the IO/E-Hem (especially post-onset of the Asian monsoonal trough).

Meanwhile, the periods with more IPWP subsidence relative to W-Hem/Atlantic will be the warmer/ridgier ones. How quickly the ENSO state transitions (and how quickly westerly shear/+QBO downwells thru the tropical mid/upper stratosphere) will determine which of the aforementioned modes dominates (though both will occur at times).

Already mentioned none of the MJO-derived analog years are troughy straight through (except irrelevant volcanic years).

WPAC/warm pool —> W-Hem is not *typically* a cool/troughy signal in the PNW in April anyway. Exceptions are well established -PMM and/or niño —> niña years (of which 2024 is both). But even then, the outcome is changeable, troughy on balance at 500mb but not constantly.

For reference, we had this exact MJO transit twice in spring 2015 and the outcome was a huge western ridge. Only reason it’s not going that direction in 2024 is the base state is in diametric opposition in structure and evolution.

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Awful trends on the 00z runs. I’d rather have the eclipse turn out cloudy than come home to a nasty ridge.

Huh? There’s like 1 or 2 ridgy days out of the next 10 up there. Meanwhile I get one quick trough in a sea of nonstop ridging.

You’ve been getting your way all year. A little variability won’t hurt you or the ecosystem.

6 hours ago, MossMan said:

Today was very similar to yesterday, I got spit on at times but the sun did come out for about 4 minutes today! 
.04” on the day. 
Got my project done. Even pressure washed all the moss off my landscape rocks! Anyway, only about 20 other projects to go! 

I thought mossman liked his moss? You mentioned growing and watering it a few years back.

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah. Though late summer is more humid than say, Oklahoma, it’s not quite as hot and there can be some cool days. We had a clipper come through once when I was there and it was lovely for a couple of days afterwards. 

Summer clippers are a dying breed. They used to happen all the time (the early 2000s had some amazing ones, w/ epic QLCS/squall lines followed by cool/dry air) but now they seldom occur after the solstice.

With the Bermuda High getting fatter and expanding NW a little more each decade, it’s probably only a matter of time before they cease altogether.

25 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That was me last Sunday, only worse.  I got a hair clipping in my eye, and it got all kinds of swollen and pissed off.  I got an abrasion on my cornea thanks to said hair clipping, and it is finally returning to normal, finished antibiotic eye drops this morning.

 

The plus side, I had an eye patch and my wife "let" me talk like a pirate.  The only problem was I was feeling pretty crappy (also had a cold) so I wasn't really in the mood to talk like a pirate.

I’m sorry that happened to you, but I desperately needed the laugh. So thanks! 

This shit started yesterday (probably from sleeping with my contacts in) but hasn’t gotten any worse today. So I’m hopeful it’ll clear on its own. Fingers crossed.

2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

Insane lie to tell on a weather forum.

Get bent, Pedro.

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Any idea how this summer might start and end? I want to ease into it and not have 90's in June this year. and then not still have 90's all September.. 

Blowtorch summer, especially the second half. Niña onset with descending +QBO and in-situ -PMM is the worst possible setup.

June might be closer to climo, but not guaranteed. 2010 started torching in April and didn’t relent until December.

9 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Another attempt by the globalist elites and the principalities and powers that control them to scare us out of our freedoms and bring about the Great Reset where we will have to eat bugs and wear the mark of the beast. The Antichrist will come soon and bring about the long prophesied one world government with the apocalypse soon to follow.

People today prefer safety and security over true freedom, as was proven during the pandemic. 

If this is sarcasm, you need to make it clearer. A good number of people will take this literally. Like, word for word.

5 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I think anomalies in general are greater in colder climates, I saw examples of really large ones in Klamath Falls though they were almost exclusively in certain times of the year. I remember being surprised Nov 2016 wasn't in the top warm ones in that town after finding it ended up with a rather large spread from normal.

So, in that case, what would classify it as a climate breaking statistic? Need more info for sure.

Yes. Standard deviations are very large in cold climates that are removed from substantial oceanic influence. The polar regions also house the tightest thermal/insolation gradients and strongest storms/planetary wave activity. Extreme variability is the rule, not the exception. And the most extreme places go unmeasured (by sfc stations, at least).

The aforementioned article draws the absurd comparison between temperature variability in the Antarctic with variability in the UK. Then intentionally ignores the scientific context explaining the vast differences and why they cannot be compared.

Just one of many gargantuan mistakes littering every paragraph.

@SnarkyGoblin This might be the dumbest sh*t I’ve ever read. Not blaming you at all, most people wouldn’t suspect a prestigious legacy media outlet like “the guardian” of such prolific incompetence.

But yes, pseudoscientific babble is too kind a descriptor for this rancid hunk of donkey dung masquerading as a climate science article. How morons like this get into positions allowing them to spew disinformation at will is beyond me. Holy molasses.

There are at least 5 catastrophic errors in the first 2 paragraphs of this article. Can you spot them?

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Good gravy.  So when they say such a severe anomaly has never happened, you think that's just a lie? 

I swear your arrogance sometimes....

Yes, by omission and lack of context. Such a high amplitude temperature jump may not have occurred at that particular station in its limited period of record, but that is a function of probability (station in right place at the right time). Standard deviations are HUGE in the Antarctic. And most extreme anomalies tend to occur where there are no stations to begin with.

Yes, it’s an impressive anomaly. But it’s not indicative of anything beyond noise/random variability in weather.

32 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

This post is kinda off topic but I don't really give a fk. People who live more than 25 miles east of the Rockies are all insane. You all need mental help.

Now I remember why I don't come here anymore, an eclipse is the only thing that makes it worthit to come here. Although I will say, there are a lot of nice people here and they've been very welcoming, it must have something to do with their brains not working properly.

What, no details?

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow the tables have turned 

Everything has gone Jesse’s way this year.

3 days ago this looked like the beginning of an amplified+dynamic western ridge/eastern trough pattern. Or at least something more variable.

Mother Nature: “Just kidding! Now, back to your regularly scheduled 2024 programming.”

At least I’ll have an opportunity to catch some of these, assuming I don’t go blind or bite the dust early.

2099 is probably off the table, though.  

Welp I have full blown pink eye, complete with photophobia. Because, of f**king course.  I have to be living in a simulation bc this is scripted too perfectly.

Needless to say, no eclipse travel for me. I’ll have to enjoy my 90% view from here, with one functioning eye (barring a last second miracle).

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

First it looked ridgy... then it looked like it troughing would be focused to the north... and now the models have come around to more of the same with that system diving down to SoCal next weekend.   Crazy model swings the last few days.

Tbh I’m not sure what it is about this particular pattern that is tripping guidance up. This kind of instability isn’t unusual for the GFS/GEFS, but the EPS and GEPS also got thrown for a loop.

I had suspected something was wrong with those crazy ridgy solutions only because it wouldn’t fit the models’ own MJO projection(s) (not even secondary EOFs). But I’m at a loss as to why there was/is such a disconnect in the first place.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Spreads rainfall around... pretty important for balancing things out.

El Niño releases stored heat too. A lot of it.

La Niña stores heat. She is the antagonist, hiding her true intent by cooling the atmosphere.

58 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe | Climate crisis | The Guardian

Another depressing statistic.  38.5 degress Celsius above their normal for the day.  Imagine if that were to happen anywhere else in the world.

That article is pure hype/spin. Such anomalies are not unheard of in the Antarctic (especially the WAS area). Only difference is time of year, in this case.

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

At least we are not facing another stupid El Niño the next go around. 

El Niño is proof god exists and there is justice in this universe.

Quite the shift on the GEFS for next weekend.

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Thought there were some flakes mixing in but then realized it was cherry blossom petals.

I feel u.

 

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Most western troughs the last couple months have been mainly CA/SW focused, I've noticed next weekend is mainly north-focused. Other shoe's gotta drop eventually I guess.

 

That should become less frequent with time as the niño elements attenuate.

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But will it snow at my house? 

I predict it will snow at your house in 7-8 months.

Maybe a 5% chance for conversational flakes/graupel in early May?

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree.   I was enjoying my coffee and commented to my wife on the axisymmetric dissociation in the LF state in tropical convection.

Here’s a visual aid re: example of axisymmetry applied in meteorology.

Technically the correct term for what I was describing would be “mirror asymmetry”, but that’s not how it’s phrased in meteorology, and would have sounded even more jargony.