Phil

Tropical forcing does look different this run. Might explain the poleward shift in the STJ.

So far, PV/U-wind integral weaker on 18z vs 12z, opposite relative to the 12z ECMWF in that regard. Good news.

Tim would like it.

Drunk uncle is running. Que the jaws music..s**ts about to get uber real.

Essentially it's the "non-perturbed" ensemble member. The initial conditions are tweaked in each ensemble members initialization scheme to account for potential uncertainty (this is the purpose for ensemble modeling). The "control run" is the non-perturbed ensemble member run w/ the same resolution, parameterizations, and internal physics as the rest of the ensemble members, which generally have a lower resolution than the operational deterministic version of the model (and often have more parameterizations than the operational runs as well).

Viewer discretion advised.

Don't look at the EPS control run!

Day 10 ECMWF iceboxes much of the NH. Those two breakers constructively interfere to deliver a solid blow to the PV. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/729D0473-F06D-430C-A3DD-193FDB74E750_zpsvvhf4aea.png

Ah, I see. Which way did the Canadian trend?

Wait, I thought they all trended east?

Looks like a solid 25% increase in the 1-200mb U-wind integral. Quite a jump in the PV intensity. Also a more symmetrical response which allows it to resist structural damage from wave bombardment.

This. Changes this run won't have a huge effect locally until sometime in week two, verbatim.

The PV aloft is much, much stronger after D5. Interesting, but might not mean much. Looks like the Eurasian/NATL wavebreak failed, hence the PV maxes earlier in baratropic mode.

Nothing is farther east. The PV aloft is just stronger so the poleward wave breaking and mass fluxes are flattened a bit. Basically the ridge overturns/gets knocked down a bit, but it's mostly temporary I think, seeing the next wavebreak following on its heels. No biggie in the long run, IMO.

Have never understood the fretting over 75mi wobbles.

The upper level PV is much stronger this run..not sure how it'll affect things yet, so far the wavetrain is fighting it pretty hard so no huge changes.

About the same.

That was a joke lol. I'm getting it at the same time you are. Going to be similar to 00z I think.

For anyone worrying, the 12z ECMWF is NOT farther east this run, and it's not trending east either. Going to be a nice run.

It's not. At least not relative to 00z. Everything always looks farther east to you.

There was never a reason to freak out over a few OP GFS runs, especially given how the multi-model ensemble aggregate was/is trending. Once out to day 4, the ensemble aggregates perform better than the OP runs.

Just used up all my likes. Fook.

You can have the cold. I just want some snow, and temperatures warm enough to enjoy it in. I'll pass on the frigid/dry crap.

You're starved for something alright.