Phil

Where have I said that? Link it.

The AO debate keeps getting rehashed in here yet we keep going back to the same numbers which tell us nothing. Lol.

CMEs/O^3 destruction can negatively impact modeling during week two, in rare cases within week one.

A super -PNA alone will never work again unless the Hadley Cells retract to (at least) their pre-21st century state.

Wrong. You're hurting yourself when you compile numbers without context like this. A strong +AO coupled with a strong stratospheric PV often precludes NPAC/EPO amplification in the first place. The AO value alone doesn't tell you much about the large scale boundary conditions present. Is the PV strong/vertically stacked/coupled with the troposphere/NAM system? Is it a baratropic-mode or baroclinic-mode PV? When you get down to the physics of the situation, it is the dynamics within the polar domain that act as the ultimate governor fof winter conditions in the PNW.

Is he using the state of the PV alone to predict that? Strange if true..definitely a "new age" sort of methodology.

At that to the list of popular movies that everyone has seen except me.

Negative to that one. No Arctic outbreaks or "significant" regionally wintry stretches until the PV/+AO weakens..need a poleward displacement of mass/wave amplification to manage that going forward.

I like wind too, until it breaks something. It did this to our roof and outdoor lights yesterday (which I just spent all of today repairing). http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DEB8F22E-0C7F-4A73-8BB0-3EB6C9F74D41_zpswmrsxegt.jpg

Interesting. This area (SW Montgomery County "Knob") is very sheltered in general, except when the winds blow with a dominant westerly component. The Potomac River Valley runs on an east/west axis for over 20 miles here, and we live on a small elevated bluff (within the river valley) separating Booze Creek from the Potomac River. So those W/NW winds get funneled right in here, and we're exposed from that direction anyway, so they hit hard and relentlessly. However, we're sheltered from every other direction here. It's actually very common for the DC area to receive strong postfrontal winds from the W/NW due to downsloping, which deepens boundary layer mixing. Gusts very often exceed 50mph and sometimes exceed of 60mph. Every now and then, a big daddy will blow through with gusts over hurricane force. Some areas are hit harder than others obviously. Places like Parrs Ridge, locations within/along the Potomac River Valley, and especially higher elevations to the west of here get hit the hardest, while locations east of the Fall Line typically receive less wind overall.

Also, saw today that a house on Helmsdale Road had its chimney knocked down. Will try to get a picture tomorrow. There was also a big ice cooler that wound up on our deck..we asked around but it doesn't belong to anyone on our street. A few houses are missing shutters, shingles, and siding. A few medium sized tree limbs hundreds of twigs down too.

I spent the day repairing it myself..required two trips to the Home Depot, haha. It actually pulled the plywood out with the gutter awning, snapping some of the bolts joining the them with the roofing face. I guess we're lucky that building codes require roofs be bolted down and reinforced to walls here, or there might have been more problems.. Some very high gusts registered on nearby stations around here..Bradley Hills hit 72mph, Kimberley hit 79mph, Bannockburn hit 68mph..all within a mile of here.

Still too much +AO/PV. When push comes to shove, that will need to change.

Pretty cool gif of temp records set over the last few weeks. https://mobile.twitter.com/splillo/status/810712648287457280/photo/1

It's what you're peddling.

The pattern has just been too progressive overall. Need a more amplified GOA/NPAC block in the long run.

HUGE blast of wind here this afternoon with the frontal passage..easily the strongest winds since hurricane Sandy. Tore up our gutters, and broke our outdoor lights and mailbox. My station is surrounded by mature pine trees and still recorded a 50mph gust. Very impressive. Pictures of the house are below. Gutters torn up again: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7009B144-6269-4B73-96A5-2AB6A4C22916_zpsy07rn3bc.jpg Thess light fixtures snapped off at the base, allowing the lights to rotate with the wind. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/04B76125-A76B-412D-9E73-70BA3274A066_zpsvuzjznoa.jpg Mailbox busted: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/861B27FD-0B64-4E4C-ACA8-A0F69E463117_zpsmqhjeky5.jpg

Yeah I think the fact they couldn't stop due to the ice was the problem.

This was the scene on I95 this morning. Terrible. Freezing rain isn't something to mess with, prayers for those who lost their lives.

The offshore block needs to amplify poleward into AK. There's simply no way around this fact. Though apparently Flatiron disagrees and is predicting a New Years snowstorm under flat offshore ridging and a concurrent +EPO vortex.

As if I remember, lol. Was several years ago. I do remember taking a nasty head-butt from a mental dude with mermaid tattoos above his eyebrows. Another time I woke up the following day with bloody knuckles, so maybe I won that one, haha.

Yeah, pretty much.

Lol, I think I've been in enough of those. I could use some carbs or a rum-in-coke, though.

So you were trolling. Gotcha.