Phil

Brrrrrrr.

Quintuple dog dare. Also have to spend the weekdays outside doing labor work with yours truly.

I dare you to spend a summer here.

Yeah, wave synchronization did improve markedly. Might be enough to counter the longer waveguide.

Lol, hard to adjust after 5+ months of swamp weather. Oh, and I'd like some snow too if you don't mind sharing.

00z GooFuS is already more progressive looking through 60hrs.

My lips are already chapped to hell. Winter sucks.

Yeah, +EPO hose jobs aren't common under the -ENSO/+QBO combo. Usually there's a lot more NPAC blocking.

Ugh, anything but 1984-85. That was just too cold (and almost snowless) around these parts.

I think there'll be a ridgy period in January. It doesn't necessarily have to last the entire month, though..maybe 2-3 weeks?

Bulls**t.

You're losing your edge, Fred.

Nice! Was going to 'like' this but apparently I've reached my quota for the day.

That's worthy of a screenshot.

Thanks for the heads up, that's definitely not my intention. I do think that, in this particular pattern, you'd want to avoid a legitimate +NAO, but I can think of a few cases where a modest to moderate +NAO would be helpful in patterns that are slightly different.

Haha, that giant +AO just self-destructs in the uber-clown range. All it took was a little bump out of Eurasia and it fell apart.

I don't think anyone would suggest otherwise. I'd still argue that, in the current era, Arctic/NAO blocking is generally preferable to a strong vortex there, however.

Wave-driving restarting out of Eurasia in the clown range, so that would get the job done in la-la-land. That's something in the realm of chaos though.

I don't see it. Might slide into the Great Lakes or Northeast, which is more of the "default" when blocking is lacking.

Lol, the polar vortex squashes that NPAC ridge like a bug. But yeah, the AO/NAO are meaningless right?

Yeah, this run sucks regardless. Just too much +AO. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0397C2EE-0F8D-4D54-80DE-F11418897EB9_zpsrevrmlts.png

Also, a very strong +NAO, in the classic sense, very often leads to eastern troughing through both upstream and downstream feedbacks, though there are some cases where the entire nation will torch.

Okay, but that was a rare case where the PV aloft (and peripheral wave amplification associated with its demise) was located over W/SW Canada. Also, the EA-NAMT ratio was extremely polarized and the Hadley Cells were very much contracted. This isn't something we could pull off today.