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Everything posted by Phil
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That would be it, yeah. I always said there was a chance it could slide east if the Hudson Bay Vortex/NAO failed to cooperate, which looks to be the case this time. Need just enough downstream blocking to keep the WHEM waveguide less progressive, but not so much that it overwhelms the Pacific. Though, you guys aren't even close to being done. If late December fails, I see another huge opportunity towards the end of January, into February.
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Obviously there are a few issues with the 83/84 analog heading towards the second half of winter (as well as the NAM/PV in general being volcanically compromised that year), but into New Years I think it'll serve as a rough guide. This January looks to attempt at a -NAO/Scandi-Eurasian ridge type setup, which will both promote the type of wave driving that'll support a SSW/PV breakdown and a typical midwinter -AO type pattern response which could be very cold for the US if the Pacific cooperates.
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I don't think I can offer much help on the mesoscale level. My understanding of the microclimatic complexities out there is pretty much zero. What skills I have are confined to the larger scale stuff. That's one of the reasons I don't post as much when you guys are discussing an ongoing event. I'm out of my league at that point, so I'm better off listening and learning.
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Yeah, definitely have seen that windshield wiper effect in the extended range. Still, it's a fragile game because a broad/flat NPAC anticyclone and/or -WPO will strengthen and align the PV while an amplified wavebreaking regime will tilt/perturb the PV from underneath. Can be the difference between a baratropic PV and a baroclinic one..
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Warmest autumn on record in DC. Hopefully we're snapping out of this multi-year warm stretch now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/02/record-toppled-autumn-in-washington-d-c-was-the-warmest-in-144-years/?utm_term=.7ee4c5a7b44f
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I've never seen the d11-15 ECMWF ensembles quite this bullish on cold before. Has sub -20 departures continuing in western Canada out to d15. Crazy..huge source of bitter air ready to be tapped and put to good use. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE65EF53-D566-492D-9BFB-2365F6EB97E7_zps6xu90ok0.jpg
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Received another trace of snow/sleet followed by a quarter-inch of rain last night. Clearing now w/ the W/NW winds starting.