Phil

It makes perfect sense to me. The first NEPAC/EPO wavebreak fails to cycle and propagate poleward, hence U-MT remains higher and the waveguide slides east.

Every single state in the US (except Florida) is colder than average by hr240 on the 00z ECMWF. That'd be pure awesomeness if it verified. Maybe it's our turn to experience the widespread icebox Eurasia just went trough.

What about it is suspicious? I thought you agreed that later in December would offer better opportunities.

Was about to comment on that. If we can keep the strong blocking around for awhile, everything will be alright in the end.

00z ECMWF looking more progressive initially.

The lackluster SE ridge on the GFS is due to upstream differences. I wouldn't say it's the culprit, rather it's more of a consequence of the disorganized upstream block.

Haha, what a whacky clown range GFS run, especially over Siberia and the NPAC.

It looks fine to me. Just a bit disorganized to start.

My thoughts haven't changed. I think this is mostly a tease. Will still be a cooler than average pattern, but I believe late December has a much higher chance at sexiness.

I gave my thoughts on the matter Friday evening. I suspect the early December stuff is more of a "tease", with better potential for a significant Arctic blast (-EPO/-AO type pattern) sometime around the Holidays into early January, followed by a warmer/ridgier pattern for a few weeks thereafter. Then I think another potential window exists towards the end of January, into February. The late December blast might slide east of the Rockies, but I think the February pattern will argue against that happening again..

This run should be notably better than the 18z.

A few of my posts from last night, FWIW:

Lol, I was here rambling away both last night and the night before, when those nice-looking 00z GFS suites came in. It's not my fault the modeling sucked today.

Then you haven't been paying attention, because this is wildly inaccurate. No offense intended. Also, I've been swamped with work. I can't spend hours upon hours here when I have a slew of exams upcoming and long workdays.

Yeah, the d11-15 18z GEFS looks super familiar. Each of the last three winters have featured this dominant pattern at one point or another. Hudson Bay vortex/+NAO, -EPO/-PNA, anchored under a strong PV aloft. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3F97737B-36A9-4EB3-84DC-09F39B7C77D2_zpso7ggnnq3.gif

Could very well be a blip.

So yeah, that reinforcing wavebreak is super-crucial to the progression thereafter. This run was already pure s**t by d7. If it fails completely (as the 18z depicts), then it's over. Dagger.

If the Arctic dump around the Holidays misses you to the east, then I think the next opportunity will come towards the end of January, into February, given what looks like a ridgy period during much of early/mid January (IMO).

Failure upstream will probably result in a Hudson Bay vortex regime on this run. It's just one run, however, so obviously the tendency over the last few runs could be a blip of sorts.

Yikes, second anticyclonic wavebreak just fails altogether.

Tropical forcing much different this run. Uplift centered right along that 120E marker, which in a +QBO is usually no bueno.

Drunk uncle is sober today.

00z ECMWF isn't very good. Not enough large scale amplification.

They're a great tool if you know how to use them.