Phil

Maybe the people claiming I have "nothing good" to say about the model runs? Just for starters.

Haha. I think one Tim is enough.

Lol. Exaggerate much?

I think I've made it clear why I'm lukewarm on the upcoming pattern. Need more amplification (ideally an anticyclonic breaking event within the EPO domain) for anything significant, given the general lack of Arctic air on our side of the pole. Eventually the Aleutian Low will return, as the tropical forcings orbit back to the MC/WPAC, so I'd like to see something occur fairly soon.

The pattern is fine if you're happy with modestly cooler than average temperatures. Anything more significant will require additional amplification, IMO.

Too much Alaskan troughing on the 00z ECMWF. Can already tell by 180hrs the troughing will be pushed east.

Man, it's just going bonkers out there. Just lost a big piece of the gutter off the side of the house.

First, the PV split lasts maybe 5 days. Second, I don't think that's the reason Eurasia is favored for cold. It's the Pacific/WHEM tropospheric pattern that's to blame. The nature in which the PV is perturbed is reflective of the wave driving and resonant synchronicities that forced it. The split itself doesn't determine where the cold will end up.

Also had our first snowflakes of the year today, so that's a huge win after a hellishly hot year.

Lol, yeah I guess so. Mid/upper 30s for most of today, so an overall "meh" in the cold department. It's been windy as hell though (a few gusts up to 70mph in the area).

Just kidding around. Whether it's a warning shot, or parting shot, remains to be seen, obviously. I generally prefer to be cautious in a year like this.

Downsloping keeping precipitation at bay down here, while temps have been hovering in the low 40s all day. Winds continue to howl, with gusts at/above 50mph being observed at most locations west of the Fall Line.

That would be Jim, I think. #tooearly The 12z ECMWF is okay..would like to see more amplification over the NPAC to avoid another +PNA after the next AAM return cycle.

First snowflakes of the winter across much of the area.

Wintergreen gusted to 70mph. Not shabby for a mid-November event.

This guy snapped off at the base. Nailed that house on the way down. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/A348D81F-1258-4167-890E-8B1F58120C22_zps8vuh2ptn.jpeg

Sleeting here. What a perfect frontal passage. Nearby WxLink station (somewhat more exposed than mine) hit 55mph. BWI hit 51mph, DCA hit 50mph. Winds have lulled for the time being but should return even stronger tomorrow.

Huge winds! Neighbor's pine tree snapped at the base and fell on the house, taking out part of the gutter. Got it on camera too.

Wind is literally howling. Station recorded 40mph through a grove of pine trees..probably 45-50mph in reality.

Nobody knows, that's what makes it enjoyable IMO. Throwing out predictions is something we all do.

Did Jim claim 100% certainty?

Front is now crossing the blue ridge..gonna be one heck of a pressure surge. Also noticing some smoke in the air, being carried up here from the fires in the VA/WV ridges. The wind surge should clear the air this evening.

Wind advisory just issued for gusts up to 55mph here. Finally something interesting incoming.

The 00z GFS begins to restrengthen the PV later in the run, which appears to be a direct consequence of the broad Aleutian ridge which shuts down vertical wave activity fluxes from the troposphere into the stratosphere through the NPAC. This would make it difficult to leave the broad Hadley Cell regime in the long run, hence reduce the chances of favorable NPAC blocking and significant winter weather. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png