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Everything posted by Phil
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New Euro monthlies are a block party. December: Huge -NAO and -EPO blocks...they actually form a "ridge bridge" across the entire Arctic domain. Looks like a December version of October 2009, probably even more extreme, if anything. January: Crazy -NAO continues, however we lose the EPO, looks like a neutral EPO/PNA..not much of a signal either way in the western US. February: More classic Niña (-PNA/+EPO) overall, however that big -NAO continues unrelenting. Trough centered in the west. Talk about a crazy pattern.
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I've spent the morning analyzing the NAM state from 10mb to 1000mb over the last few months, and I have to say, the current situation is quite peculiar for a -ENSO/+QBO year. Polar cap heights have been well above average since March, and though it's early, the PV looks to begin the cold season weaker than it has ever been for mid-October in a Niña/+QBO (during the satellite era), except for maybe 2009 which was a Niño/-QBO (hence weak early-winter PV is expected in that case). Looking back, I can only find a few years with even remotely similar stratospheric profiles under similar ENSO/QBO background states. One of these years is 1959/60, but this was a cold neutral/high solar year. There are a few other years, like 2010/11, that hold some similarity at/below 40mb, but nothing like 2016/17 so far.
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Looks like DCA gusted to 42mph. So far I've got 27mph through the trees. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s, perfect for a midday jog. I love downsloping days.
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Currently 57.7/49 early this morning with a light drizzle falling intermittently. Can hear the breeze outside from in our bedroom. Probably hitting 30-35mph out of the north, but unfortunately my anemometer is blocked by pine trees from that direction, so the peak gust is only 20mph so far.
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What's funny is, contrary to popular belief, the reason the coast is shaped like that is because of hurricanes tracking both through and just south of that area. Geologically speaking, it's been a very active hurricane zone, probably the most active of any region. This was especially true during the ice age years, but it's still a mere fluke they've lucked out over the last century. During the 1890s alone, four hurricanes affected the region.
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Brutal cutoff w/ the rain this evening. Picked up just 0.13". Waiting for the pressure surge/corresponding N/NW breezes, first offshore gradient wind event of the cool season. Looking at maybe 30-35mph.
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Significantly weaker than average zonal wind integral from 1000mb to 10mb is forecasted to continue through at least the next two weeks, across the entire NH. Should this persist into winter, very good things will happen. The PV is now officially the weakest ever recorded during October in a -ENSO/+QBO year. Can't say I expected this.