Phil

I could do better there. Though acronyms like PNA, ENSO, etc are thrown around 24/7 on here and nobody explains them because it’s assumed people already know them. Knowing which acronyms need to be defined and which ones don’t is the main issue for me.

Interesting little meso-low feature. Does look convective, but definitely persistent. Definitely don’t get that kind of weather here in Jul/Aug.

That’s probably convective rain sandwiched between partly sunny skies. Assuming MN is similar to here in that we don’t really get cloudy days or stratiform rain in the summer months. Actually this summer we don’t get rain, period.

What it did it peak at up there in 2021? Worst I ever experienced was in July 2011, after a sun-shower turned a 105/77 afternoon into a 94/87 evening. It felt almost scary. If you’ve ever had a facial, it felt like that hot steam they blow on your face to open your pores, which is difficult to inhale. Best analogy I can think of.

I’d get raked over the coals for pointing this out. Can be even more than that depending on the pressure level used. Basically an average summer airmass here contains slightly more overall heat than an average summer airmass in Phoenix, AZ.

I didn’t know ACE records went back to 1886.

Lol. I’ll catch flack for this but…technically that’s not true, due to the lower thermal capacity of dry air. Your air-mass contains substantially less heat despite the “warmer” daytime high. If we had your moisture levels it would literally be 105-110+ everyday in this pattern.

Entering the most boring time of year. Nothing changes.

The operational ECMWF is almost certainly overheating the boundary layer under that ridge. Take ~ 3-4°F off the projected high temps.

It essentially was. Put it this way: It was more niño-like than 16/17 was niña-like. And it’s not even remotely close.

Political stuff should stay in the politics thread y’all.

A second niño would be a miracle and I don’t think those exist. At least not in weather/climate.

Yep. Potent niña looking less likely. I can see a route to cold neutral ENSO now..not certain, but it’s possible. Wish I’d stuck to my guns earlier this spring, as my initial hunch was we’d avoid a niña this winter. That may end up being correct after all.

Off-equator trades to strengthen as poleward -AAM transport continues into mid-July. Also weakening NATL high. +AMO will be re-strengthening big time this month (and subtropical NPAC SSTs should cool with respect to climo as well, especially 2nd half of the month).

And we have -AAM being transported poleward from ~ 20N when the CCKW returns to the E-Hem, which will strengthen the NPAC high. Could never get those to align correctly in post-2013 summers (save briefly in 2016 and 2020).

Congrats! Yeah man it’s brutal, you’ve done well. Hard not to scratch the itch sometimes. I’vs relapsed many times over the years but my willpower has only grown and I can better control myself now (to the point where I can probably get away with drinking occasionally, but why take the risk?).

Yeah this isn’t the post-2013 regime. Mid-July tropical forcing made another substantial shift in Jesse’s direction on the 12z EPS.

I’d be down. And no worries I should be alright, haha. I’m in a good headspace at the moment. If the itch comes back I know some great restaurants that don’t serve liquor, if you’re cool with that.

Yeah definitely. Well, assuming I haven’t moved, heh. I’m trying to stay away from alcohol at the moment though. I admit that’s the reason I ditched you last time. I knew I would cave. Some months are harder than others but I’m doing better these days.

It may be a prolonged cooldown as opposed to a hard crash but a cooldown nonetheless.

The 12z EPS and 18z GFS/GEFS are majority troughy after 7/14 (though there is a super ridgy cluster in there too).

But maybe it’ll at least slow the evaporation rate a bit.

The 00z GFS has PWATs approaching 3” at 8pm on 7/4. It has to rain in that airmass…right?!?!

And you’ve got some troughier weather coming up the second half of this month too, most likely. Really does look like a different low frequency state this summer vs recent years, intraseasonal excursions notwithstanding.