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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Wide Hadley Cell (yet again) and augmented by persistent wave breaking.
  2. Don’t drink the poison. A good chunk of my family including my dad live in Sarasota now after starting out as part time residents. FL drains your ambition and sucks your life force.
  3. Latest EPS seasonal projects November as the coldest month relative to average in the PNW. Verbatim December looks ridgy, January looks like a mishmash of different patterns, and February looks zonal.
  4. And that is welcome news. Last 5 years have been rough s**t. I’m skeptical the season actually ends up quiet, though. The ENSO correlations are much stronger in Sep/Oct than Jul/Aug. This one almost feels like the inverse of active +ENSO seasons like 2004, which started off gangbusters but tapered quickly as summer dynamics gave way to autumn.
  5. Was just there last week and cannot understand how anyone would want to live there. No cold fronts or airmass changes in the summer, and no variability in terrain or microclimates. Sure there are daily thunderstorms during the summer/fall, but the winter/spring are basically a clone of SoCal. No weather at all.
  6. The regime of ET wavebreaking that was kickstarted by the MJO/deposition of AAM back on mid-May has sustained itself in the face of strong (and strengthening) La Niña forcing. Quite unusual but hard to say whether it will sustain and/or is indicative of something bigger. Could be as cold season dynamics take over the circulations change again.
  7. I think I’m finally acclimated to humidity this year. 90/75 with light winds at 11AM and I’m barely sweating. Either that or I’m just dehydrated.
  8. The GFS boundary layer problems are well documented. It runs warm/dry just about everywhere in the US in the summer, and will be corrected with the next upgrade. And it’s objectively true that the ECMWF is a better model than the GFS. Not even debatable.
  9. I was watching our nest camera as it moved in. Raging winds and a blitz of CTG bolts before the signal cut off. Must have been a powerful storm, sucks I missed it. The GFS surface temps are absurdly warm and the BL is almost always too dry.
  10. Nice! Lol, and I’m missing it all in SE GA where the airmass changes are so slight it barely makes a difference. I’m sure I’ll get home just in time for another prolonged hot stretch.
  11. There’s so much Saharan dust here you can barely see the clouds.
  12. They can be a trigger if there’s a cap in place without a sufficiently strong forcing mechanism. Similar to how outflow boundaries often spark new storms.
  13. Dp reached 85°F this AM here in coastal GA. Felt almost otherworldly.@Chewbacca Defense can probably attest to what I’m talking about. Like there’s more water than oxygen in the air. All I can say is thank GOD there’s a stiff sea breeze most days. This place is so beautiful and magnetizing but d**n it’s tough on the body.
  14. Isle of Palms is very humid! @TT-SEA https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KLRO&hours=72
  15. Bro are you on something or just trying to get banned? Effing drop it already.
  16. If it happens again there’ll be consequences I’m sure. That was way over the line and cannot happen again. Heck I need to tone down the s**tposting myself. Many of us can do better on that front.
  17. I assume a cold season “dustbowl” isn’t possible on the westside absent glacial inception.
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