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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. That’s the big thing for me too. The breaks are key. That variability has been missing from recent summers here. Used to have big temp swings even in Jul/Aug, nowadays it’s just the same weather for months on end. Not necessarily super hot, either, just 70+ lows every night and heat index in the 90s/100s every day. Slowly wears on me with time.
  2. I’m guessing you have reservations made somewhere just in case the unthinkable happens?
  3. Lightning bugs going crazy here tonight. Haven’t seen this many in years. Thousands of them lighting up in the trees every second.
  4. Masochists and sadists would probably disagree.
  5. Cool troughing is very “nice”. FWIW I posted the GEFS mean, not the GFS operational.
  6. Perhaps a better visualization of the difference. This is perturbation-1 vs the control run. P1 has a full blown MJO, where-as the control run has the faster/shallower CCKW dominating the evolution.
  7. Of course the MJO<—>mid-latitude connection is more complicated than I laid out above, and there are other forcings involved (both local and external). But that should suffice as a summary imo.
  8. Though there is an interesting inflection point developing within the EPS. A growing number of members (including the control run, pictured below) do not bring a full blown MJO back through the W-Hem, and instead have a faster/CCKW type solution with some low pass element remaining back in the IO. If the CCKW route is realized (which *might* be dynamically favored under the -ENSO low pass), that may suggest a dampened dAAMt cycle and faster termination of the +TNH regime, but also a less anomalous -PNA/+NPO response in late July. In other words, as Tim puts it, a more “goldilox” outcome with less extreme heat or extreme troughing, and instead a mildly above average 1st half July followed by a mildly troughy 2nd half. Of course that outcome would be bad news for the Plains/Central US which would not receive as much of a break from the heat, where-as a full blown MJO wave could deliver some real troughing there. Below is the aforementioned control run (CCKW) versus the EPS mean (more MJO component, but also some CCKW dominant members). Hard to pick out via the naked eye but it’s a clear distinction. Interesting stuff.
  9. I expect the warm background to continue into mid-July. Been saying that for at least a month now.
  10. The effect on the thermocline will be greater (and more important) than the effect on SSTAs. But neither will be “negligible”. What it will do is trigger an upwelling oceanic kelvin wave that’ll cool the subsurface (and SSTAs). In fact, this trade burst is timed perfectly to produce an upwelling wave because the previous downwelling wave that originally warmed the subsurface has already reached the EPAC. Any chance we had at ENSO neutral is now gone. Could very well have a strong La Niña heading into fall/winter 2022/23.
  11. If this verifies it’d likely be the strongest trade wind burst ever observed in the satellite era in the month of June.
  12. Exceeding the avg temp is fine. Exceeding it by 10+ degrees is another thing entirely. There’s literally nothing you could to convince me of that, short of live streaming a measurement with a high quality sensor. Would require basically zero wind and no new runoff.
  13. I don’t believe it for a millisecond.
  14. I loved Lake Chelan. I was 8yrs old but can still remember it like it was yesterday. Was one of my favorite childhood trips.
  15. Hard to explain something that isn’t real. Actual water temp is more like 64-65°F. That’s my wager. Or maybe it really is the most stable, poorly mixed lake in the country, and there’s a thin layer of crazy warm water sitting above frigid deep water. I mean, it’s possible…I guess?
  16. There are lakes here (much shallower than Sammamish) which are only in the mid-70s. And it’s much warmer here. Like, we’ve had upper 90s highs and mid-70s lows already. And the sun is stronger here too.
  17. Forgot about that possibility. I think it’s just as likely Tim tampered with the buoy.
  18. You spelled my name wrong. And I’m not worried.
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