Brian_in_Leavenworth

I clicked on it, a popup appeared, then I clicked on the left arrow, and that restated the gif and it worked then.

I'll probably get more. But so far on the GFS nobody gets much.

I like weathermodels.com. Has the weeklies, full ECMWF, full EPS, etc. Graphics not as good as WB, but a lot cheaper.

Way more complicated than that. There is also the problem of paint. They need to constantly repaint the weather stations (but they don't), and that leads to artificial warming). Has been a big problem. Most likely the rural weather stations are also not being repainted often enough. Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations - Lopardo - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library And there is time of day adjustments in the past, etc. Really hard to get a good feel of what is ha

Yup. And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too.

It also has temperature maps there too.

Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps. Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps.

Ok, the one that weakens the ridge a bit. I see the difference now. When I read cut off low, I think of the ones that drift down to CA.

Looks just like last night's hour 144.

Talking about the cut off low near California? Was there last night too hour 120.

Yup. And it isn't like the models are showing a GOA low and zonal flow. The same basic patter is there, just a few details that aren't right on those model runs, at least for those on the West side. As people have been saying, the devil is in the details, and this is an example.

Nothings gone wrong yet. These are models. The actual weather hasn't happened yet. We may still get an arctic blast. Every single time, and I mean every single time there is an actual arctic blast, the models do this. And you know that. And of course there are times when it actually does turn into a bust, and this could very well turn into a bust. Give it time, and then analyze.

Didn't know the NWS finally developed an app, good to know.

Fortunately the ensembles don't.

Yesterday it was a slight risk, now a moderate risk, albeit only for parts of WA and Idaho. And they don't use 12Z guidance.

Keep in mind the GEFS actually was improved since last night.

There's always a pullback. And sometimes it is the beginning of the end, and sometimes it goes back to being good.

Despite that, there must be enough good individual members of the ensembles to show snow that the mean still looks ok. Ensemble mean snow totals don't mean much, but it is interesting that it didn't really change much from last night. Last nights:

Different look for the EPS. Trough more offshore, not nearly as cool. Probably a good snow pattern for places like mine, since it would still be cold enough for snow, but not so good for others.

Weather apps are automated forecasts made not anywhere near where you live. There is not a person that is making a forecast for your area based on their experience, their knowledge of the terrain, the recent performance of the models, etc. Sometimes it is just a literal spitting out of what one particular model says at that moment at a very low resolution. Works for summer when the weather is benign, but awful for winter, especially snow. Where I live, I remember seeing an app that was based out of Norway. Yes, the app on my phone was from Norway, Microsoft had it as its default weath

That is impressive. I knew the lake levels got a lot of snow (and rain), but not that much. We are staying in Kingsbury in October, looking forward to exploring the whole area. That 30% rain is probably all snow just a bit higher, at least most of the time.

Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts. Summer I understand, but winter?