Brian_in_Leavenworth

What makes you think there will be a Nino next year? Not saying there won't, but just because Phil says so doesn't make it so. OTOH, Ventrice said it could last until Summer because of the recent WWB, so maybe it will.

So far the ensemble mean has a much more robust ridge, just needs to retrograde a bit more.

https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble Type in your city. Scroll right for all 15 days. Has the range, what the mean is, etc

Tropical Tidbits, use the ensembles instead of the model. The link from before was the Euro, just type in your city

Looks like the ensemble mean starts it sooner than the operational.

You're fine. You will learn Dewey's humor soon enough. He is just repeating a phrase heard all too often around here.

Jörg | kachelmannwetter.com @Kachelmann · 5h How cold is it gonna be? Check the #ECMWF forecast for every place (just type it in) in the world including yours - see the 14 day Ensemble forecast with uncertainties, scroll to the right for next week: https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble

Just checked. Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Caught up on email from ECMWF announcing data availability changes on October 1st. Hourly data from 0 - 90 hours (all cycles) Additional 6-day forecasts from 06z and 18z HRES + EPS

Guessing all the East Coast weather weenies are overloading the servers and are slowing it down. I see that too, sometimes an image won't load.

I know there is now an 18z and a 6z euro, but I haven't seen it yet online. How far out does it go? Where is it available? Guessing weather.us may have it for paid customers.

FV3 looking similar at 240

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_wave_of_1978

That may be, but 1978 was NOT a coast to coast event. Unless he thinks the Dakotas are on the coast.

I believe it. When they say "out west", they mean what we would call the Mid West. If this is a 1978 repeat, it wont be cold out here.

Just checked. January 1978, and it lasted a couple of months. I also checked Seattle. They torched both in January and February. Only one day did the morning low get to 32, and that was January 1st.

How did the PNW do in 78? Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

I can see Tin and Shawnigans maps from WB but not yours. Are theirs PNG images?

I posted a couple of those images earlier, but it looks better as a GIF like you did. Did you make the GIF at the Tidbits sight? And how do you save it so it posts here?

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 15m15 minutes ago MoreComparing the 10-day forecasts in Kansas City from GFS and ECMWF models (12Z) on Sunday: GFS high 6°F ECMWF high 0°F

As far as the storms later this week and into the weekend, the Euro seems to have a pattern of the 12Z runs being quite wet (and snowy for the mountains), while the 0Z runs seem to be much drier. At least for the Washington Cascades. This back and forth has gone on for the last 5-6 runs.

The Ensemble mean shows some signs of retrogression too.

I posted a video of it awhile back. "On another note, snowstorm at the OK Corral! https://www.facebook...16805308810822/ " https://www.facebook.com/historictombstone/videos/516805308810822/

Eastern Washington agriculture depends on irrigation, not rain, so droughts don't matter as much. That is why dams are built, btw. And for many parts, the difference between a drought and normal precip is one really rainy day. Moses Lake, for example, averages less than 8 inches of rain per year. Where I live in the East slopes is comparatively wetter, but there is still irrigation for the pear orchards, since the summer is so dry here even during "wet" summers.

Euro has been inconsistent in the medium range. Yesterday's 12Z was pretty wet with a lot of mountian snow, last night was pretty dry, today's is being back to being wet with good mountain snow.