bud2380

I'd love to be in Lincoln on Friday. Temps well into the 70s. It's gonna be a beautiful day for a college football game. Too bad the teams on the field aren't going to be any good (Iowa vs. Nebraska). Should be in the low 60s here in my back yard. That is going to feel great. Perfect time to get all the Christmas lights out.

No snow here either. Cold air just didn’t filter down in time

The hi-res NAM continues to be the most aggressive with the cold air on the back side and snow chances. Again 10:1 shown here for dramatic effect. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111718/039/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Wow, warm day on the plains. Low 60s in far SE Nebraska. 70s into Kansas.

00z nam backed off on the depth of the cold air. Still showing some snow but not as widespread and looks to be shorter duration than previous runs. 3k nam a little stronger but also weaker than the last couple runs

The RGEM also starting to pull in some back side snows for Saturday. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017111618/048/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Good read from the DVN AFD Saturday Widespread precip is likely Saturday morning, possibly lasting into part of the afternoon across the eastern CWA. Early morning thermal parameters support rain as the precip type. But as low-level cold air advection and the effects of dynamic cooling both increase, there is potential for a changeover to a rain/snow mix or all snow. The best chance is along and north of a line from Fairfield, IA to Freeport, IL. It`s lower to the SE, but still possible. Time-height sections have a frontogenetic band developing beneath a coupled jet structure which produces deep layer ascent across the CWA. The jet feature and Fgen are actually forecast to be over southern/central Nebraska Friday night, then reach E Iowa/NW Illinois by Saturday morning. A meteorological setup like this one is conducive for a period of light to moderate precip, so the hardest part about the forecast is definitely the precip type. If snow occurs, antecedent wet ground conditions and marginal sfc wet-bulb temps above 32 F, will make it difficult to get more than slushy accumulation on elevated surfaces or the grass. It is still too early to have any confidence on where, and if, a localized narrow band of moderate snow would occur. It`s something we`ll continue to monitor for in subsequent model runs, because it would increase the potential for brief snow accumulations, and for visibility restrictions to those traveling. Model Trends: The ECMWF is the warmest model and would be mainly rain. Other models, NAM/GFS/CMC, are colder and indicate a higher probability for a period of snow. The 3km NAM nest is the most aggressive model with dynamic cooling resulting in a quick changeover to snow, which eventually reaches all the way to the eastern CWA toward late Saturday morning. Went colder than the model blend sfc temps, but not as cold/aggressive with the changeover as the 3km NAM. Model consensus QPF is on the order of 0.10 to 0.30 inches for Saturday, but could locally be higher within narrow bands. There is still time to trend toward a more significant/prolonged period of all snow if models, like the NAM, are consistent over the next few runs.

I'm posting the 10:1 ratios for dramatic effect. NAM! NAM! NAM! http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111618/057/sn10_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017111618/060/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

3k NAM! Obviously this isn't realistic in terms of accumulations, but again it would be fun to just see the snow flying. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111612/060/sn10_acc.us_mw.png http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111612/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

GFS starting to think about some snow too. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017111600/066/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

NAM getting even more aggressive with back side snow chances Saturday. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017111600/066/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

i knew that used to be the case but I tried it anyway. Initially it posted on my end, but now it's not there anymore.

The storm is still there on the 18z, it's just not as cold at the outset and not as well organized. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2017111518/USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_252.gif

Models trying to flash a little snow Saturday morning in my neck of the woods. DVN mentioned it in their AFD as well. A trend to keep an eye on. Most likely will not be able to accumulate, but it'd be fun to watch it fly. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017111518/069/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

I'm 37. And I'm the same way. I don't like cold at all, but i love snow. I really enjoy tracking it and watching it fall, and now getting out and playing with the kids in it. But if someone else wouldn't mind clearing my driveway for me, that would be great.

Just waiting for something...anything to show up in the long term on the models. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png

Nothing good for Iowa on The gfs for the foreseeable future. Next Friday’s system will be a significant rain maker it looks like for most areas. We don’t typically see significant snow in eastern Iowa anyway until December. I wish it would warm up though for the rest of the month. 50s would be nice

Just plain old cold rain here.

Incredible weather 100 years ago today.

Just beyond the 240 hour time frame here. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017111012/264/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

Still big differences between the Euro and GFS for the weekend, in particular with thermal profiles.

Not much of interest showing up right now on the models. Euro has an extended period of ridging throughout the majority of the central and western US for most of the extended starting on Saturday/Sunday time frame. No snow coming yet for most of us. Hopefully in a week or so we see something interesting.

The GEM still holding on to some snow for the weekend. Definitely a lot different with the thermal profiles than the GFS. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017110612/138/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.

More snow for areas north of the Twin Cities. Good start to the year up there. http://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png