BLI snowman

Moral of that story being the GFS is a total mess and should never be taken seriously again.

Not really, the 12z yesterday was showing 86 on Sunday at PDX. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2015092812&text=KPDX

February is a nonstarter in a big El Nino year. Very likely to suck.

I'm thinking mild/wet November with our best chance for snow in mid to late January. January has completely sucked too much recently for it to continue much longer.

.31" at BLI, .27" at PDX. Not bad for a front that totally dissolved over us leaving us with nothing.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/exasperate It has two definitions actually, though the second is largely outmoded and rarely ever used anymore.

I'm sure it will be much wetter in CA and OR relative to average. With a stronger Nino that's a virtual guarantee.

As you can see, the warm/dry spring and the ensuing pathetic snowmelt were the main culprits for the WA portion of the drought this year https://www.flickr.com/photos/ecologywa/21669879121/in/album-72157656690948883/ And further exasperated by the hot summer.

Like I said, it's the combination of drier than average conditions across a majority of the region, several years of low snowpack including a historically bad winter last year, and historic warmth which further stresses and dries out the soils and vegeation. Your area is in fact in a drought, which contradicts your original assertion.

Tim + point = Missed I believe that's called the yuppiedumdum formula.

Your focus was on this past year, Palmer and very likely your location are well below average in the last 12 months. Olympia is running about 7" below average in the last 12 months. It's been a dry year for the Puget Sound region overall. Like I said, it's not historically dry, but combined with the historic warmth and historically low snowpack, it's easy to see why the region is still in what is labeled a severe drought.

The historically below average snowpack alone hurts the river levels. Your beloved Palmer station is running about 20" below average for the water year right now. You don't have to go very far outside of SEA's little bubble to find that the last 12 months have been pretty dry (albeit not historically so) for virtually all of the region.

The drought people disagree http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Do you have any data to back that up? Quick ENSO plunges don't always yield cool, damp springs and summers. In looking at the post-1950 years that immediately transitioned from Nino to Nina, you have 2010, 2007, 1998, 1995, 1988, 1983, 1973, 1970, and 1964. Of those, I would categorize only 2010, 1983, and 1964 as cool/damp spring and summers.

Kind of a moot point. The Nino is already strong and well established and will be impacting the global weather patterns a lot during the next six months.

September 1972 had an epic trough at the end of the month. The early 1970s were way colder than now so that type of winter is clearly off the table, at least until our next 8-9 winter.

They should move Portland's official observation station to Council Crest.

Portland is badly overdue for a 90 in October. In a stunning upset, they also failed to get below 50 last night, in spite of 42 at Hillsboro, 37 at Olympia, and 47 at SEA!

Cross-reference...... http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1396174/images/o-CARROT-TOP-facebook.jpg

Ridging should return in early October. Can't rule out an 85 or even a stray 90 in the general PDX area.

1997 had better oceanic support for a stronger El Nino, the subsurface warmth that year and the temps in the western equatorial Pacific were a lot warmer. I don't see the main ENSO region (3.4) getting as warm this year, even though the anomalies are identical now to September 1997 (+2.3).

I said until April. January-March 1998 were constantly wet in southern WA as was May. We got a break in April that year.

October 1997 was among the wettest on record at least in southern WA. Then it rained on most days until April that year. Then a record wet May. Just an idea of what you have to look forward to in a strong El Nino year!

Not going to be the 1/20 year setup where November is sunny and warm. The last two Novembers were both sunnier than normal throughout the region. A third is a longshot. With a raging Nino, the initial fall surge of westerlies should be unusually wet for us, be it in October, November, or early December.

1999-00 and 1991-92 were both actually warmer than 2011-12, which is in 3rd place.