BLI snowman

WRF still shows pockets of pretty heavy rain, someone will probably get a lot but a lot will get a little. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015081400/images_d2/pcp24.24.0000.gif

Can you find me a recent model run that showed any convection over the valleys this evening? Even the overly optimistic MM5 runs have held off precip until midnight at the earliest these past few days. Not sure tomorrow will offer anything grand, as surface based instability will be hard to come by. But there should be plenty of showers around and small pockets here and there of >0.50" totals looks likely.

Those were pretty isolated yesterday but a few model runs did show a threat for the SW WA coast on Thursday morning. Not so much for the Central Sound. The models have been insistent for awhile that our precip threat with the trough begins early tomorrow morning as opposed to this evening or early tonight. Literally nothing has indicated that pre-midnight convection was a remote likelihood anywhere west of the mountains today.

It wasn't ever going to rain until 3am or so west of the Cascades. Pay attention.

Yeah, some wet snow there and in March 1935 in spots. The January 1935 event was like January 2012 on some colder-climate steroids. Massive flood on the Nooksack River.with that.

Days are getting cooler from here on out. And the shortened day length usually becomes noticeable around late August. Enjoy the descent into another mild, disappointing season!

Pretty good chance we see a 1934-35 type winter next year. Expect a very cold mid January guys.

Nice storm going right over SEA.

Bad would be awesome.

It doesn't show much precip at all for the valleys, actually. Probably will be some sort of deformation zone late in the week as the trough swings ashore, but not much for most people.

Cold, dry troughs don't really happen this time of year. Offshore flow still equates to warm weather. If it cools off a lot, then you're going to have to brave some of the rainy, sticky weather that comes with it. If you hate humidity, then you should like this summer. The heat has been dry heat and the cooler weather has been accompanied by low humidity as well.

Not all historic winter periods can be as impressive as the January 2013 arctic-fog cold phase blast.

Euro looks like earlier runs as well, I'd say the last two GFS operational runs are garbage.

Winter of 1978-79 was also radically colder than last winter in the PNW. Very different times.

The summer of 1976 didn't even hit 90 in parts of the Portland metro. Radically different indeed

90 in September historically is far from a sure thing there. Every 3-4 years you go without 90s that month. It'll happen again at some point. Maybe soon!

PDX's 90 degree record may be in jeopardy of being in jeopardy.

Been a pretty quiet spring/summer on that front from the Cascades westward. In terms of warm core convection, I'd say the quietest since at least 2011 or 2010.

The last genuinely chilly one for most of the region was 2007. September is the new January.

Nah, it`s still pretty famous for a 50 year old song. Pops up on greatest song lists pretty frequently. The Kinsgmen only had a couple other hits though..

Louie Louie is like the most famous song ever, dude.

Insanely wet mid August incoming.

The same is true in the winter with arctic events. Too cold at first and too warm once the air is entrenched.

Virgaing the sh*t out of that sucker.

Them's the breaks. The last vestiges of 20th century cold that we saw a couple years ago could be a story you tell your great grandchildren about with frenzied delight in the future.