BLI snowman

Just add 21c to the 850mb temps and subtract 8.00" of QPF from that frame and you got our weather. #newnormal

December 1933 was pretty dramatically different. All time record rains in the PNW with a sharp arctic boundary over BC for most of the month and all time record cold in AK. One of the strongest +EPO stretches on record.

Februaries 1934 and 1885 seemed to be very comparable, but that might be it for the NE back to 1870.

SEA goes back to 1944 and just had their warmest winter on record. Score!

Their records only go back to 1953 at the airport there. Pre 1953 surely killed it.

Only three of them since 1949 (1957-58, 1960-61, 1982-83), four if you count 2012-13 which may not have had accumulations at the airport but they weren't measuring it there anymore.

Been exactly a year since Bellingham's last sticking snow.

Very difficult to say, but it's definitely significantly lower than 90.9%. If you're looking at the percentage of years that have either major regionwide arctic periods or major lowland snowstorms (let's say across a 100 mile or greater radius), then maybe 50-60%? Obviously still incredibly arbitrary, and that batch of years is indeed a statistically insignificant sample size. As it is, the odds of seeing two back to back duds are never high. I just feel those odds are weighted even more when the degree of warmth is as historic as it has been. Clearly doesn't always work that way, or work both ways. Anyone banking on a warm winter the following year in spring 1949 would've later felt kind of silly (although the frigid 1948-57 stretch effectively balanced out the mild 1939-48 period).

I think the years following our warmest winters regionally tend to have a higher than average propensity for severe cold/snow in the region. This is obviously relatively arbitrary and it's obviously not completely scientific, but when we're talking about truly top tier warmth there overwhelmingly seems to be some next year payback. The absolute warmest winters for the WA/OR/ID region prior to this were: 1. 1933-34 2. 1991-92 3. 2002-03 4. 1957-58 5. 1980-81 6. 1952-53 7. 1939-40 8. 1994-95 9. 1977-78 T-10. 1982-83 T-10. 1969-70 So the following winters were 1934-35 1992-93 2003-04 1958-59 1981-82 1953-54 1940-41 1995-96 1978-79 1983-84 1970-71 Of those 11 winters, only 1 of them (1940-41) lacked either a major arctic period or major snow event for the western lowlands. That's a much higher percentage of hits than we're used to seeing historically. This turnabout becomes far less noticeable the more moderate our blowtorches become. We've followed many modestly warm winters with complete mediocrity the following year. So obviously it's arbitrary and there's a point where the correlation, however small, is no longer worth pointing out.

Well, we can let 2015-16 and 2016-17 be the judge of that I'd expect something pretty radical in one of the next two winters. Likely not as historically good as this winter has been poor, but some semblance of balance nonetheless.

00z GFS ensembles were the coldest yet, FWIW....

We'll always have the near record cold of April 2011 to offset that. #preciouscoldphasememories

In an alternate cold phase universe, 1989 is actually more recent than 2014. Trippy sh*t.

OLM was record warm in March 1992.

October 2014..... FWIW!

I did. Had to change out of them late this afternoon after getting around to seeing the 12z Canadian. I honestly felt a little foolish after seeing the 00z eastward trend.

Only sure things can be discussed here! And mountain snow! Otherwise, take it elsewhere folks!

If it's so unworthy of discussion, what's with your plethora of posts about it? Move on and enjoy the warm sunshine then....

We're at the 1 yard line now. Lynch will bring it home for us. Too soon?

Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table.

Ha, didn't even see this post. This guy gets it.

JMA says we may be in business though! Sorry south-of-Stanwood folks!

Nope, 12z was actually the coldest GFS ensembles of the last few runs. Euro and Canadian ensembles look nice. Models seem to be coming around.

This will be a good Euro versus GFS test.

Sticking snow doesn't look very likely down that low this week. Either way, it's been a historically woeful February and you oversold the "differences". Accept it and move along.