TigerWoodsLibido

Bored with nino climo here.

More members drop to the -8 ball.

That would be snow in the air IMBY for sure with the 522 line right here.

South valley involved?

What the fu

Didn’t the druncle take a piss on us yesterday?

Split flow?

South valley has cleared. Gon be a blowtorch Trying to think of positives right now. Our last significant weather event here was almost 40 days of 90+ last summer. Literally, there has been nothing of interest to impact us since then and I cannot remember a year since I lived here where this happened.

A small area over here has actually had 2 stinkers in a row and next year is going to be a strong niño. So a 3rd stinker is likely there. Unusual since the west Central Valley typically does much better esp in gorge outflow situations. You say by shear probabilities it will flip for us but our summers keep trending hotter here and that will not break this year.

Oh god. The 99-00 thru the 02-03 winters saw zero snow in the S valley and EUG went over 4 years without a sub freezing high during that stretch. Not able to look right now but I’m going to assume that’s the longest stretch without either in the records for EUG going back to 1939. Silverton went like 9 years from Feb 95-Jan 04 without any snow during that time too.

I’m sure they’re strongly considering it.

Oh this has already been jinxed by PDX NWS.

Seems like all of the big 3 op runs were warm outliers Sunday evening.

Not good

Shocker. Get ready for more of this next year too!!

Yup. Not a surprise.

From NWS PDX: LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...The operational GFS and ECMWF are in agreement when looking through the extended. The models have an upper level low passing south of us, then proceeding to hug the California coast. This passage will keep the already well established ridge in place through Thursday evening. Friday the models have a deep trough pushing its way inland. This trough and associated cold front look to bring a a very good chance for precipitation to the area, as well as a sizable cold pool in the postfrontal environment on Saturday. 850mb temperatures starting on Saturday look to be around -5 to -4 degrees Celsius (23 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit) through the next weekend. Sunday into the start of next week the models show a new cold front with a slightly cooler 850mb temperatures between -7 and -6 degrees Celsius (19 to 21 degrees Fahrenheit). The two systems mentioned are expected to have precipitation with them, and if the models continue trending in this way winter precipitation along the foothills of the Cascades could occur towards the early part of next weekend. If these model 850mb temps verify it could result in, a lowering of surface temperatures, snow levels falling and the possibility of winter precipitation coming to areas that have seen little to no winter precipitation given elevation. It should be noted that winter precipitation on the valley floor will typically happen with 850mb temperatures between -8 to -6 degrees Celsius (18 to 21 degrees Fahrenheit). Overall, the models look to be in agreement when compared to yesterday. As a result have lowered surface temperatures slightly, lowered snow levels, and increased PoPs through the latter part of the week and into the weekend. So that should go ahead and jinx things.

Springfield got to 42. EUG to 41. Monmouth only got to 40. Currently 38 in the west Central Valley.

Yeah the druncle took a piss all over us. Hope the ensembles are better. This is more than likely just going to be a transitory chilly valley rain and mountain snow pattern.

Tsk tsk tsk

Druncle starting soon!!

Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event. If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger?

Nobody say a goddam thing!!!